The Tampa Bay Lightning (1-2-0) and Washington Capitals (2-1-0) meet in an Eastern Conference matchup Tuesday evening. Puck drop is set for 7:00 p.m. EDT at Capital One Arena in Washington, DC. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN.
The Capitals are slight favorites at -105, and are priced at +210 to cover the puck-line (-1.5), with the over/under set at 6 (O-110, U-110).
Let's get into my Lightning vs. Capitals predictions and NHL picks.
Lightning vs. Capitals Odds, Pick
| Lightning Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -260 | 6 -110o / -110u | -105 |
| Capitals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +210 | 6 -110o / -110u | -115 |
- Lightning vs. Capitals Spread: +1.5 (-260), -1.5 (+210)
- Lightning vs. Capitals Over/Under: 6, -110/-110
- Lightning vs. Capitals Moneyline: Lightning -105, Capitals -115
Lightning vs. Capitals Preview
Tampa Bay Lightning
It's been a disappointing start to the season for the Lightning, who hold a record of 1-2-0 and have allowed 4.33 goals against per game. The Lightning entered the season as betting favorites to win the Atlantic Division after leading the Eastern Conference with a +75 goal differential last season, followed by a flurry of strong roster acquisitions dating back to last year's trade deadline.
Thanks in part to Panthers' Captain Aleksander Barkov's season-ending injury, the Lightning hold arguably the best offensive core in the NHL.
Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Jake Guentzel, Anthony Cirelli, and Brandon Hagel keep the floor for the team's top six extremely high once again, while the bottom six could be considerably improved compared to the majority of last season.
Tampa Bay acquired a pair of high-quality two-way wingers in Oliver Bjorkstrand and Yanni Gourde at the trade deadline last season and rounded out the bottom six by bringing in Pontus Holmberg this offseason. The Lightning's fourth line was one of the team's few flaws last season but should be considerably improved this season.
Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh may regress to some extent this season as they age further away from their respective primes, but the Lightning still offer a deep defensive core, which will be well insulated by a forward corps that should drive play at a high rate.
Jon Cooper remains the team's head coach, and has been tremendously successful during his 13-year tenure with the team, coaching to a record of 573-308-83.
Given all of the continuity among the Lightning's stacked roster led by Cooper, it's probably not worth putting much weight into their sluggish three-game start to the season.
The Lightning will be playing the second leg of a back-to-back in this matchup, but this particular situation should not be as taxing as the average back-to-back spot in the NHL. They played a matinee in Boston Monday and arrived in Washington early in the evening, which suggests this is a much better spot than the majority of travelling back-to-backs, where teams arrive in the next city late in the evening.
Number-one goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy also rested in yesterday's matchup and should start this game as a result.
Washington Capitals
Action Network App users that are most familiar with my work know that I was very high on the Capitals last season. I was lucky enough to be rewarded by hitting bets on them to win the division, as well as head coach Spencer Carbery to win the Jack Adams, and Alex Ovechkin to record 30/40 goals.
Oddsmakers, as well as the mainstream NHL media, are expecting a fairly considerable step back compared to last season's total of 111 points, as the Capitals entered the year with a regular season betting total of 96.5 points. Relative to their betting odds, I'm fairly neutral on the Capitals this season, as their deep defensive core and excellent goaltending tandem will help offset the team's likely offensive regression.
The Capitals led all NHL teams with a shooting percentage of 12.5% last season. Alex Ovechkin tallied 44 goals in just 65 games, while numerous key skaters such as Dylan Strome, Aliaksei Protas, Tom Wilson, and Connor McMichael all had career years.
Ovechkin is arguably the most logical regression candidate, as the 40-year-old was clearly inspired by his pursuit of Wayne Gretzky's all-time goals record last season and finished 18.6% of shots on goal, the highest mark of his career by a wide margin. Ovechkin has not yet scored a goal this season but enters this matchup off of a strong performance at MSG Sunday, in which he registered a primary assist on the lone goal of the game, as well as several other quality scoring chance assists.
One of the greatest reasons for the Capitals' surprising 111-point 2024-25 season was the play of Pierre-Luc Dubois, who tallied 66 points while being one of the better defensive centers in the entire NHL.
Dubois suffered an injury in Sunday's matchup versus the Rangers and is confirmed to be unavailable for this matchup. His absence might not be getting enough attention from oddsmakers, as based on the underlying results, he was the Capitals' third most valuable forward last season.
Lightning vs. Capitals Prediction
Chances are this will be the only matchup between these two sides in which the Lightning are underdogs this season, largely due to the fact that the Lightning are playing back-to-back, and perhaps in part due to the fact that they have started slowly.
As noted, however, the effect this back-to-back has on the Lightning could be less significant than average, given that Vasilevskiy will start in goal and the travelling scenario was not bad. The Capitals will also be playing their third game in four nights in this matchup and will be without a key skater in Dubois.
We don't really need to knock the Capitals to argue that the Lightning should be a slight favorite in this matchup. Oddsmakers consider the Lightning the second most likely to lead the Eastern Conference in points this season, something I agree with entirely.
At -105, I believe we are getting a good number to back a Lightning side, which should be among the league's best earning their second victory of the season Tuesday.
Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning Moneyline -105 (Bet365, Play to -110)
