Polymarket prediction markets let eligible users trade shares tied to real-world outcomes, including political events like elections, primaries, and party nominees. This means you can essentially predict anything from the winner of an election to the timing of breaking news stories.
Now that Polymarket US hosts election contracts, you can sign up with Polymarket referral code ACTION and use your welcome offer of Deposit $20, Get $50 Trading Bonus! on political trading.
Keep reading to learn more about how Polymarket election markets work, how to read pricing as implied probability, and what kinds of political markets are available where Polymarket election trading is permitted.
TL;DR
- Polymarket election markets let eligible users trade simple Yes/No contracts tied to outcomes like election winners, party nominees, and ballot-related events.
- Contracts are priced between $0 and $1, with prices reflecting implied probability. A 70¢ “Yes” price means the market is pricing that outcome at roughly 70%.
- Correct contracts settle at $1. Losing contracts settle at $0.
- Polymarket US users can now trade on election contracts, among other markets.
- Where election markets are available, users should review funding rules, market rules, and local eligibility before trading.
How Do Polymarket Election Markets Work?
Where Polymarket election markets are available, eligible users take positions on political outcomes by trading contracts with other users. Before you keep reading, U.S. users should note that this section explains how election markets work generally, but it doesn't mean election markets are currently available in the U.S.
Most markets are structured as simple “Yes” or “No” outcomes, though some also offer multiple options, such as picking a specific candidate to win an election. Contract prices reflect market sentiment, so an 80¢ contract implies roughly an 80% chance of that outcome based on current trading activity.
Political markets tend to stay active year-round, but they draw significantly more attention during election cycles. As a result, you’ll typically see more liquidity and sharper price movements heading into major events like primaries, midterms, and the U.S. presidential election.
Polymarket Election Odds: Price and Probability
Each Polymarket election contract is typically priced in cents, with options ranging from 1¢ to 99¢. These prices can be read as implied probability, so a candidate trading at 40¢ suggests roughly a 40% chance of winning based on current market sentiment.
While these prices can be a useful indicator, they’re driven by user activity and can shift quickly, with odds updated in real time as new info emerges. That’s especially true during an active election cycle, where major news can move markets in a matter of minutes.
Settlement: How to Read a Polymarket Rule
Before trading any election market, read the rules section for that specific contract. This is where Polymarket explains how the market will settle, what sources it will use, and whether there are any timing requirements around announcements or final results.
Take a presidential election market as an example. The rules may say the market settles once certain news organizations call the race, or it may wait for another official outcome if the result is disputed. That detail matters more than people think. Election results can get messy. Recounts, lawsuits, delayed calls, or conflicting reports can all affect when a market settles. So, before you trade, don’t just look at the price. Read the rule and make sure you understand what actually counts as a win.
Payouts
Polymarket contracts are usually priced between 1¢ and 99¢. If your contract is correct, it settles at $1. If it’s wrong, it settles at $0.
Say a “Yes” contract costs 60¢ and you buy 10 of them. Your total cost is $6. If that outcome wins, each contract pays out $1, so you get $10 back. That would leave you with a $4 profit before any applicable fees or costs.
Polymarket says it doesn't charge deposit or withdrawal fees, though users may still run into network fees or third-party processing costs. Transaction times can also vary depending on the payment method and network conditions.
Are Polymarket Election Markets Like Polls?
Polymarket prices can look a little like polling numbers at first glance. If a contract is trading at 70¢, the market is pricing that outcome at roughly 70%. However, that doesn't mean Polymarket is a poll. Polls measure what a sample of voters says. Polymarket prices reflect where traders are putting money. Those are two very different things.
A price can move because of real news, but it can also move because of a rumor, a viral post, or one side of the market getting a sudden burst of attention. For example, a viral post about a 2028 presidential candidate could drive more trading before there’s reliable reporting behind it, and that extra activity may push the price higher, even if the actual odds haven't changed much.
So yes, Polymarket prices can be useful to watch as they can show how traders are reacting in real time. Just don’t treat them as a clean read on what voters think or what will happen next.
For more context, our liquidity vs. accuracy guide explains why market activity doen't always reflect real probability.
What Types of Polymarket Election Markets Exist?
Polymarket is known for having markets across sports, pop culture, economics, weather, politics, and other real-world events. On the political side, election markets can cover everything from presidential races and midterms to primaries, global elections, and local races.
For U.S. users, Polymarket election markets are now available along with sports and weather contracts.
With that in mind, here are the main types of election markets users may see where Polymarket election trading is available.
U.S. Presidential Elections
U.S. presidential election markets are usually some of the most closely watched political markets on Polymarket. These markets may focus on the overall winner, party nominees, party control, or more specific election-related questions.
A presidential election market might include contracts tied to individual candidates, party outcomes, or broader questions like whether the next elected president will meet a specific condition. Prices can move as new polling, endorsements, fundraising numbers, campaign news, or public speculation changes how traders view the race.
Check out the live odds from Polymarket here for the Presidential Election winner in 2028:
There are also contracts for specific election questions such as "Will the next elected U.S. President be a woman?" See the live odds for this more granular market below:
U.S. users cannot trade Polymarket election markets at this time.
Midterms
Midterm markets may cover which party controls the House or Senate, how many seats a party wins, or the outcome of specific state and congressional races. These markets tend to get more attention as Election Day gets closer and control of Congress becomes easier to model.
Some markets may also focus on ballot measures, amendments, or state-level questions. As always, the rule page matters. Two markets can sound similar on the surface but settle in different ways.
Related: See how Polymarket’s election markets compare to Kalshi's election markets.
Primaries
Primary markets focus on who will represent a party in a future election. On Polymarket, that may include state-level primaries, congressional primaries, or presidential nomination markets.
These markets can move before voters ever cast a ballot. Debate performances, fundraising reports, polling shifts, endorsements, and candidate dropouts can all change how traders price a race.
Global Elections
Polymarket has also offered markets tied to elections outside the U.S. These may include national leadership races, parliamentary elections, party control, or other major political outcomes in different countries, which are especially sensitive to timing, source rules, and local election procedures. So if a market depends on a specific election authority, media call, or government announcement, read that settlement language before treating the price as a solid deal.
Local Election Markets
Local election markets may cover mayoral races, gubernatorial races, state offices, or other regional contests. And though these markets can be smaller than presidential or midterm markets, they can still attract attention when a race has national interest or a clear policy angle.
Also, because local races can have fewer traders and less liquidity, prices may move sharply on smaller amounts of activity. That doesn't automatically mean the race itself has changed, though. Sometimes it just means the market is thin.
Related: Kalshi vs. Polymarket
U.S. Access and Regulation
Polymarket is currently in a transitional phase when it comes to U.S. operations. The platform was previously available in the country before a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) led to restrictions for U.S. users.
In 2025, Polymarket acquired QCEX, a CFTC-licensed exchange, which created a pathway for a regulated return to the U.S.
That means access depends on how Polymarket is offered in your jurisdiction and which version of the platform is available to you. Users must be 18 or older and have a legal, U.S. residential address within an eligible state, D.C., or U.S. territory.
Keep in mind VPNs, location workarounds, alternate addresses, or any other method to bypass eligibility rules are prohibited. If Polymarket isn't available where you live, don’t try to trade there. Simple as that.
For a more detailed look at regulation and how the CFTC operates, make sure to check out our prediction market regulation guide.
Polymarket Election Markets: Responsible Trading
Trading political event contracts with Polymarket can definitely add some extra intrigue to an election or following the news cycle, as you can essentially profit from your knowledge of current events. However, you're risking your own money with prediction market apps like Polymarket, where prices move fast, rumors travel faster, and a market price is never a guarantee.
One of the best responsible trading practices is setting your own limits and never spending beyond those limits. Plus, keep in mind that even though the probability is shown by different contract prices, that doesn't mean it's completely accurate.
It's also vital to always keep financial risk in mind and avoid chasing any losses with prediction markets.
For more information on how to navigate the risks of trading, you can check out this Action Network responsible trading guide. The guide covers essential tips on how to set limits, detect warning signs of irresponsible trading, and the resources available to anyone struggling with issues related to prediction markets.
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