Polymarket prediction markets let you use cryptocurrency to trade shares for event contracts on various political topics. This means you can essentially predict anything from the winner of an election to the timing of breaking news stories.
These markets are especially popular around major political events such as the U.S. Presidential race, midterm elections, and primaries, along with global elections.
Action Network teaches you how to understand trends in Polymarket election markets, how to read pricing and what it says about probability, and which markets are currently drawing the most attention. While Polymarket’s U.S. rollout is still limited to an invite-only mobile beta focused on sports, election markets are expected to return as the platform expands.
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TL;DR
- Polymarket lets users trade simple Yes/No contracts that predict the outcomes of elections, party nominees, etc.
- Contracts are priced between $0 and $1, with prices reflecting implied probability. Each correct contract settles for $1, while losing contracts go to $0.
- Prices reflect implied probability, so a 70¢ option has a 70% chance of happening.
- Polymarket users need to use a cryptocurrency wallet to fund their accounts
How Do Polymarket Election Markets Work?
With Polymarket election markets, users take positions on political outcomes by trading contracts with other users. Most markets are structured as simple “Yes” or “No” outcomes, though some also offer multiple options, such as picking a specific candidate to win an election.
Contract prices reflect market sentiment, so an 80¢ contract implies roughly an 80% chance of that outcome based on current trading activity.
Political markets tend to stay active year-round, but they draw significantly more attention during election cycles. As a result, you’ll typically see more liquidity and sharper price movements heading into major events like primaries, midterms, and the U.S. presidential election.
Polymarket Election Odds: Price and Probability
Each Polymarket election contract is typically priced in cents, with options ranging from 1¢ to 99¢. These prices can be read as implied probability, so a candidate trading at 40¢ suggests roughly a 40% chance of winning based on current market sentiment.
While these prices can be a useful indicator, they’re driven by user activity and can shift quickly, with odds updated in real time as new info emerges. That’s especially true during an active election cycle, where major news can move markets in a matter of minutes.
Settlement: How to Read a Polymarket Rule
Before placing any trades on election markets, it’s critical to read the Polymarket rules section for each contract. These sections outline how the market will settle, including the official data sources and sources used to determine the final outcome, along with any specific timing or announcement requirements.
For example, the market for the U.S. Presidential Election winner 2028 is scheduled for November 7, 2028, and resolves based on official data sources like the Associated Press, NBC, and Fox News. The rules also specify what happens if those outlets don’t call the same winner by January 20, 2029, in which case the result is determined by who is ultimately inaugurated.
This is where things can get tricky. Delays tied to recounts, legal challenges, or disputed results can impact when—and how—a market settles. That’s why understanding the sources used to determine the outcome is just as important as picking the right side of the trade.
Payouts
Each Polymarket contract settles at $1 if correct and $0 if not. Across Polymarket election markets and other prediction markets, contracts are typically priced between 1¢ and 99¢, where prices reflect the implied probability of real world events.
For example, if you trade shares on the presidential election winner 2028 market and buy 10 “Yes” contracts at 60¢ on whether the Democrats win the presidential election, you’re risking $6 total. If the Democrats win the 2028 Presidential Election, you would receive the full $1 for each contract, returning $10 for a $4 profit ($10 payout − $6 cost=$4 profit).
When it comes to deposits and withdrawals, keep in mind that Polymarket supports cryptocurrency only, specifically USDC. You can purchase this currency directly through the Polymarket platform or click the Transfer Crypto option.
Polymarket doesn’t charge deposit or withdrawal fees, but users may still pay small network (gas) fees or third-party processing fees. Most transactions are processed quickly, depending on network conditions.
Are Polymarket Election Markets Like Polls? (Liquidity vs Accuracy)
With the implied probability shown with Polymarket prices, many users will see the numbers similarly to a poll, where they can track which way voters are trending. However, while Polymarket prices can give a window into the likelihood of an event, it doesn't always mean they're accurate.
For example, let's say that there's a viral internet post about Kamala Harris being extremely likely to be the Presidential Election winner in 2028. This could cause a major increase in trading, resulting in a higher pricing that might be inaccurate since it came from a rumor instead of a verified news source.
While a busy market might make it seem like there's a real shift happening, keep in mind that confidence in an outcome doesn't automatically translate to accuracy.
If you're looking to understand this concept a little deeper, make sure to take a look at this liquidity vs. accuracy guide from Action Network, which dives into why market moves don't always reflect real probability.
What Polymarket Election Markets Can You Trade On?
As the world's largest prediction market, Polymarket is known for its variety of markets, from sports and pop culture to economics and the weather. When it comes to political markets, the site offers plenty of contracts on U.S. elections, midterms, primaries, presidential elections, global elections, and other regional elections.
Here's a deeper look at the different political markets live on Polymarket that make it among one of the best apps for political betting:
U.S. Presidential Elections
As one of the most active markets at Polymarket, U.S. presidential election markets let traders exchange contracts to predict election-related outcomes. Some of the most popular examples are simple Yes/No outcomes on the winner of different elections.
The Presidential Election winner in 2028 is one of the main markets in this category. It gives users the option to choose likely candidates such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and J.D. Vance or long shots like Kamala Harris and Donald Trump Jr.
Check out the live odds from Polymarket here for the Presidential Election winner in 2028:
There are also contracts for specific election questions such as "Will the next elected U.S. President be a woman?" See the live odds for this more granular market below:
Midterms
Midterm event contracts are readily available with Polymarket, with some of the top options being which party will control the House and Senate in 2026. There are even contracts available for the number of Republican Senate seats, the passing of new amendments, and the winners of specific state Senate races.
See how Polymarket's election markets compare to Kalshi's election markets.
Primaries
The Primary Election presents another opportunity to trade shares on future political events. There are currently event contracts available on the winner of primaries across U.S. states.
Plus, Polymarket users can trade contracts on who will represent the Democratic and Republican parties in the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election.
Global Elections
Beyond these U.S. political events, Polymarket users can check out markets across global elections. For example, the site currently offers markets for the next Prime Minister of Sweden, President of Peru, and winner of the Denmark Parliamentary Election.
Local Election Markets
Polymarket also hosts contracts for other elections, such as the next mayor of cities like Los Angeles or Chicago. There are also markets available for upcoming state gubernatorial races.
Related: Kalshi vs. Polymarket
U.S. Access and Regulation
Polymarket is currently in a transitional phase when it comes to U.S. operations. The platform was previously available in the country before a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) led to restrictions for U.S. users.
In 2025, Polymarket acquired QCEX, a CFTC-licensed exchange, which created a pathway for a regulated return to the U.S. However, the platform has not fully rolled out nationwide and is currently limited to a phased launch, including an invite-only mobile beta that's limited to sports contracts at the moment.
That means access depends on how Polymarket is offered in your jurisdiction and which version of the platform is available to you.
It's essential to never try a workaround when it comes to sites like Polymarket, and to only use prediction markets you can readily access. For a more detailed look at regulation and how the CFTC operates, make sure to check out the Action Network prediction market regulation guide.
Polymarket Election Markets: Responsible Trading
Trading political event contracts with Polymarket can definitely add some extra intrigue to an election or following the news cycle, as you can essentially profit from your knowledge of current events. However, you're risking your own money with prediction market apps like Polymarket, meaning you definitely need to practice responsible trading.
One of the best responsible trading practices is setting your own limits and never spending beyond those limits. Plus, keep in mind that even though the probability is shown by different contract prices, that doesn't mean it's completely accurate.
It's also vital to always keep financial risk in mind and avoid chasing any losses with prediction markets.
For more information on how to navigate the risks of trading, you can check out this Action Network responsible trading guide. The guide covers essential tips on how to set limits, detect warning signs of irresponsible trading, and the resources available to anyone struggling with issues related to prediction markets.
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At the moment, access is restricted to an invite-only mobile beta focused on sports markets, meaning election markets are not yet available in the U.S. version of the platform. Polymarket’s U.S. availability is currently limited as the platform works toward a regulated rollout following its acquisition of the CFTC-licensed exchange QCEX. Expect election markets to become available at Polymarket U.S. sometime in 2026.
Yes, Polymarket runs on the Polygon blockchain, meaning you'll use USDC cryptocurrency for transactions with the platform. You'll need your own crypto wallet to purchase stablecoin to use with Polymarket.
Some of the top Polymarket election markets available right now include the U.S. Presidential election winner, as well as the results of the midterm elections and primary elections. With news and opinions conistently shifting throughout election cycles, liquidity and volume for these election markets are subject to quick changes.
Polymarket election markets resolve based on the official data sources outlined in each contract’s rules section. If a result is disputed, the market resolution can be delayed until the official results are confirmed due to legal battles, recounts, or other types of delays.
Kalshi is a great option for anyone looking to trade prediction market contracts, as the site is regulated by the CFTC and available in most of the U.S. While Polymarket election markets are more varied than Kalshi's, the site is still in the process of getting widespread access across the country.
Polymarket election markets reflect market-implied probability, with prices showing the likelihood of an outcome in percentage terms. Their accuracy depends on how well market sentiment aligns with real-world outcomes, and prices can shift quickly as new information emerges.