Manchester's Puritan Backroom started as a candy shop in 1917, but the food that came later is what made it a New Hampshire institution: in 1974, the family running the place turned an odd batch of chicken into a dish that's since become a required stop on the state's campaign trail.
These days, one of that same family, Congressman Chris Pappas, is after a different promotion: a seat in the U.S. Senate.
On Kalshi, traders are treating that outcome as close to a sure thing.
Kalshi's New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary Prediction Market
The New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee prediction market tracks who wins the state's Democratic primary on September 8.
Pappas sits far out in front, in the low-90s, with progressive challenger Karishma Manzur a distant second in the high single digits.
A third name, Rep. Maggie Goodlander, barely registers: a fun quirk, since she represents New Hampshire's other House district and floated a Senate run before deciding to seek re-election instead.
The line hasn't always sat this high, either: Pappas's share dipped noticeably when Manzur entered the race in August 2025, before climbing back toward the high 90s. Trading interest has stayed fairly steady as the primary nears, without the sharp swings that mark a genuinely uncertain race.
Why Pappas Leads the New Hampshire Senate Odds
Pappas isn't just a familiar name. He's serving his fourth House term, made history as the first openly gay member of Congress from New Hampshire, and has built a moderate reputation in a state that swings both ways. A few things explain his lead:
- He entered the race first and built an early fundraising advantage.
- He's picked up institutional support, including a recent endorsement from the
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare.
- His centrist profile lines up with a primary electorate that skews older and less progressive than the party's national base.
Recent University of New Hampshire polling shows the race has tightened in raw vote share, with a real chunk of voters still undecided.
That's worth separating from win probability, though.
A poll is a snapshot of today; a market prices who wins once undecideds break and turnout plays out. With Pappas holding a durable lead among the primary's biggest bloc, older, more moderate voters, the gap between the poll and the market makes more sense.
Manzur's Progressive Push in the NH Senate Primary
Manzur, a first-time candidate with a Ph.D. in biochemistry, is running well to Pappas's left.
Her campaign centers on getting big money out of politics, including a pledge to ban super PACs, and she's criticized Pappas over campaign contributions tied to pro-Israel groups. "The people of New Hampshire have to fight to keep" the seat, she told supporters at a statehouse rally, arguing candidates should answer to voters instead of donors.
Her message lands hardest with younger, more progressive Democrats: a real bloc, but smaller than Pappas's coalition, which is part of why the market hasn't shifted much even as her polling improved.
What Comes After the September 8 Primary
Whoever wins the nomination inherits a seat open for the first time since 2008, after Jeanne Shaheen announced she wouldn't seek a fourth term.
The likely Republican nominee is John Sununu, who's held a wide lead over rival Scott Brown in primary polling, and forecasters call the general election genuinely competitive rather than a lock for either side: one more piece of the broader fight for Senate control this cycle.
