The Department of Homeland Security has been shut down since February 14. As of today, February 24, that's 11 days with no end in sight. Congress just got back from a week-long recess that guaranteed nothing would happen in week two.
The backstory: federal agents fatally shot two US citizens, Alex Pretti and Renée Good, in Minneapolis in January during an immigration sweep. Democrats responded by drawing a line in the sand: no DHS funding until ICE and CBP are reformed. Their list includes banning masks during enforcement, requiring body cameras, mandating court warrants before raiding homes, and stopping enforcement at schools and churches.
The White House said no. The Senate needs 60 votes to advance anything, and neither side has them.
Kalshi's shutdown duration market is currently pricing 55% odds that this lasts at least 40 days, and 48% odds it ties the all-time record at 43 days. The direction is right. But the curve has some gaps worth trading — and if you want to trade on the government shutdown, be sure to use our Kalshi promo code to get started.
| Position | 35d YES (61c) and 40d YES (55c) / 60d NO (82c) and 90c NO (91c) | ||
| Fair Value (35d) | 68-72c | ||
| Fair Value (40d) | 58-63c | ||
| Edge | 7-12 cents on the Yes legs; 6-9 cents on the No legs | ||
| Conviction | 7/10 | ||
| Key Date | Mid-March — When Congress finally gets back to DHS after the tariff and Iran debates |
Why Is This Shutdown Different?
This is a partial shutdown; only DHS lost its funding. That makes a huge difference in how long it drags on.
In a full government shutdown, the pain is everywhere fast. Millions of people start calling their senators. Legislators feel it immediately and usually fold within a few weeks. This shutdown affects about 13% of federal workers. Social Security checks keep going out. The TSA is still at the airport. Most people won't feel this at all for a while.
Here's the part that really matters: The White House's core priorities, which are ICE deportations and border wall construction, are funded through separate reserves from last year's One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
The administration has more leverage and also has a workaround for everything they care about; there's no major pressure to settle this quickly.
The Kalshi Order Book
Here's where the market is right now with live updates, pulled from Kalshi contract KXGOVSHUTLENGTH:
How Does This Compare to Past Shutdowns?
These things have gotten longer over time:
| Year | Dates | Days | Type | What Caused It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | Dec 16 1995 – Jan 5 1996 | 21 | Full | Clinton vs Gingrich over Medicare and spending cuts |
| 2013 | Oct 1 – Oct 16 | 16 | Full | Obamacare funding fight |
| 2019 | Dec 22 2018 – Jan 24 2019 | 34 | Partial | Trump's $5.7B border wall demand |
| 2025 | Oct 1 – Nov 12 | 43 | Full | Spending levels and ACA subsidies |
| 2026 | Feb 14 – Ongoing | 11+ | Partial | ICE and CBP reform demands |
The 2019 shutdown is the best comparison, which had the same basic structure, partial funding lapse, immigration dispute, and executive branch holding firm. That one went 34 days.
This one has less pain than 2019 because of the OBBBA reserve funding. The market is pricing 48% odds of hitting 43 days, which would match the 2025 full-shutdown record. A partial shutdown tying a full-shutdown record seems like an overestimate.
Why Nothing Will Happen Soon
Tonight's State of the Union and the 5:00 p.m. Senate procedural vote will not resolve this. The vote will likely fail, the math hasn't changed since the 52-47 loss on February 12. The speech is a photo op for both sides.
After tonight, the House leaves Washington. The calendar starts to focus on the $2 trillion tariff fight and Iran war powers debates. Nobody is working out the details of ICE body camera requirements while all that is happening.
By the time Congress genuinely sits down to negotiate mask policies and warrant requirements, the shutdown will be past day 30. Working out a real compromise on those specific issues might take weeks of back-and-forth between House and Senate staff. The calendar alone pushes this to 35-40 days without either side doing anything dramatic.
What Ends The Shutdown?
There's a hard ceiling on this thing, and it's tied to paychecks.
About 90% of DHS's 260,000 workers are classified as essential; they have to keep showing up without getting paid. The Government Employee Fair Treatment Act of 2019 guarantees they'll eventually get back pay. That doesn't help someone cover rent in week three.
The 30-day mark is when those employees miss their second paycheck. That's when things start breaking down in unpredictable ways, TSA agents calling in sick, Coast Guard patrols running short-staffed, FEMA stretched thin heading into spring storm season.
FEMA is already in trouble. Its disaster fund dropped from $30 billion to $9.6 billion this month. Winter storms have been canceling 90% of flights out of JFK, LaGuardia, and Logan. If a real disaster hits and FEMA can't respond properly, that breaks the stalemate faster than any negotiation would.
A 60-day shutdown would beat the all-time record by 17 days. I don’t think it will get there, the pressure from essential workers missing two months of pay would start to cause major fractures.
One Rule You Need To Know Before Trading This
Kalshi's settlement rules say this market settles on the duration of the first shutdown in the period.
Here's what that means in practice: if Congress passes even a two-day continuing resolution (CR) to buy time for negotiations, and the Office of Personnel Management marks the government as "open," the market locks in at that day count. If the shutdown starts again next week, those extra days don't count toward the contract.
Rolling short-term CRs are a common move in DC when negotiators need more time without looking like they blinked. If you're long the 40-day YES and Congress passes a 72-hour CR at day 32, you lose, even if the shutdown picks back up immediately after.
Watch what type of bill leadership is pushing for. Comprehensive final package = stay long. Rolling mini-CRs = exit immediately.
The Trade
The structure bets on the middle of the duration curve while fading the extreme long tail.
Long leg: Buy YES on "at least 35 days" at or below 61c and/or YES on "at least 40 days" at or below 55c. Between the gridlocked Senate, the packed congressional calendar, and the OBBBA funding shield, 35-40 days is significantly more likely than the market implies. Fair value on the 35-day is around 68-72c. Fair value on the 40-day is around 58-63c.
Short leg: Buy NO on "at least 60 days" at about 82c and NO on "at least 90 days" at 91c. Per Kalshi's own coverage, real estate companies and federal contractors have been using the long-tail contracts as portfolio insurance against shutdown disruptions. That demand pushes the extreme tail odds higher than the actual probability justifies. The NO positions on 60 and 90 days are affected by these institutional buyers.
Risk factors
Iran escalates. If the military buildup near Iran turns explosive, the administration might push for emergency DHS funding and Democrats might drop their demands in the moment. Low probability, but it's a scenario that ends this overnight.
Rolling CR trap. Covered above. The most likely way the long legs fail. Watch the legislative vehicle, not just the shutdown status.
Democrats break. If airport backups and FEMA failures start moving poll numbers in swing states, individual senators may defect and vote for clean DHS funding without the reform package. More likely aŌer the second missed paycheck.
FEMA gets overwhelmed. A major weather disaster that the agency can't handle with $9.6B in reserves changes the political math immediately. This risk grows each week heading into spring.
Bottom line
This shutdown is going to be long. The market has that right. Where it gets it wrong is the extremes, underpricing the 35-40 day zone, and overpricing 60-90 days. Exit the longs immediately if Congress shifts to a rolling CR strategy. Check the OPM shutdown status page daily.
