The federal government is facing the possibility of another partial shutdown beginning on February 14, and the Kalshi prediction market odds are trending upward.
Just months after the country endured the longest administrative shutdown in its history — 43 days between October and November of last year — and following another partial shutdown from January 31 to February 3, signs point to a repeat scenario.
If you want to get in on the action and make a government shutdown prediction, Kalshi allows users in most of the 50 U.S. states to make predictions and win real money. We wrote a full explainer on how it works here and have a Kalshi promo code to help you get started.
Kalshi Government Shutdown Odds
Funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is due to lapse on February 13 without a new agreement in Congress. With the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) crackdown under scrutiny from Democrats and a minority of Republicans, prospects for a new deal appear to be fading.
Kalshi reflects that outlook, with more than 87% of traders expecting another “mini” government shutdown to begin on February 14. The contract fell to a low of 55% on February 8, at the height of Senate negotiations to avert a lapse, but those talks failed to produce progress and remain stalled.
The opposition is pushing for changes to immigration enforcement operations, including requirements that agents use body cameras and refrain from wearing masks that conceal their faces, while the Republican core is urging President Donald Trump to stand firm against those demands.
Even so, around 11% of traders believe there will be no new shutdown on Valentine’s Day, which would affect only DHS agencies, including the Coast Guard and agencies responsible for transportation security and cybercrime, among others.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in all 50 states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
