The U.S. government entered a new shutdown on Saturday. This time it is a partial stoppage affecting the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), at the center of a dispute between Democrats and Republicans over the conduct of immigration enforcement.
If you want to get in on the action and make a prediction about how long the shutdown that began Saturday will last, Kalshi allows users in most of the 50 U.S. states to make predictions and win real money. We wrote a full explainer on how it works here and have a Kalshi promo code to help you get started.
Kalshi Government Shutdown Length Odds
The path to breaking the deadlock and ending the DHS budget paralysis remains uncertain. Democrats are demanding changes in how Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operates, particularly after the deaths of U.S. citizens Renee Good and Alex Pretti in Minneapolis.
Most Republican lawmakers and President Donald Trump have defended the operations and, for now, have declined to make concessions to opposition demands, including better identification of agents, an end to the use of masks, judicial warrants to enter private property, among other measures.
Compounding the difficulty of reconciling positions, Congress has entered recess until February 23. With all of this in mind, it is not surprising that there is near-unanimous consensus among Kalshi traders that the government shutdown will last at least 10 days.
The probability that it will extend to at least 15 days is close to 80%. Senate Democrats have already made clear they do not want a short-term bill, meaning significant concessions on the reforms they demand would be needed to reach the 60 votes required in the chamber to break the impasse.
ICE will be able to continue operating during the shutdown thanks to funds approved by Congress last year, reducing pressure for an immediate agreement and reinforcing the majority view among traders that the partial shutdown will last at least 20 days.
The probability that it will extend to at least 25 days is now close to a 50–50 chance. While the view that it will last longer than that remains a minority position, but it fluctuates with each new development and comment emerging from Washington D.C.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in all 50 states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
