Amid political turbulence following the Supreme Court’s rollback of tariffs and the mounting social and political fallout from an intensified immigration crackdown, Donald Trump will deliver his State of the Union address to Congress on Tuesday, February 24, at 9 p.m. ET.
One of the highest-volume markets on Kalshi is tracking who will attend the first major balance address of Trump’s second term. Some attendees are widely expected, others have confirmed they will not be present, and several high-profile figures remain uncertain — creating potential opportunities in the market.
If you want to get in on the action and make a prediction about who will attend the 2026 State of the Union, Kalshi allows users in most of the 50 U.S. states to make predictions and win real money. We wrote a full explainer on how it works here and have a Kalshi promo code to help you get started.
Who Will Attend the State of the Union?
Low-Appeal Contracts: Likely Presences and Absences
The market assigns near-certainty to several key members of Trump’s inner circle. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent each carry roughly a 98% probability of attending, leaving little room for speculative value.
Although a group of Democratic lawmakers announced plans to boycott the speech, some prominent figures have already confirmed their attendance, including John Fetterman. Here, too, the market reflects limited volatility.
Other opposition figures have not publicly announced their plans, but are broadly expected to attend, among them the former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, whose visible protest during Trump’s 2020 address — when she tore a copy of his speech behind the podium — remains a defining moment of congressional dissent.
Among the least likely attendees is Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, priced at roughly 1% odds. Despite his close political alignment with Trump, his recent departure from Washington after participating in the Board of Peace, a Gaza-related initiative backed by the White House, makes his attendance unlikely.
A similar dynamic surrounds Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, also trading near 1%, following his recent visit to Washington, focused on escalating tensions with Iran.
Higher-Appeal Trades: Volatility and Political Signaling
Contracts tied to the president’s sons and daughters show limited upside. Donald Trump Jr., Eric Trump, Ivanka Trump, and Tiffany Trump attended last year’s address, and the market largely expects their return.
One exception is Barron Trump. Absent from the 2025 address, his projected attendance has fluctuated sharply — rising to about 74% a month ago, falling near 30% last week, and rebounding to roughly 45% on the eve of the speech. Given the heightened public attention surrounding his appearance at Trump’s second-term inauguration and the contract’s volatility, traders see potential value in this contract.
Significant attention is also focused on the presence of justices from the Supreme Court of the United States following its decision to strike down the tariffs. Conservative Justice Neil Gorsuch, one of six votes against the policy, saw his attendance probability fall from about 94% a month ago to roughly 60% after the ruling.
Trump has said the six justices who opposed the tariffs are “barely invited” and that he “couldn’t care less” whether they attend. With tensions still high — and Gorsuch having skipped the 2025 address — the “no” contract continues to draw attention among traders.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most 50 states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections, and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
