President Donald Trump's State of the Union Address is tonight at 9:00 p.m. ET. Trump will speak to the country and discuss a variety of topics, some of which you can wager on at Kalshi.
There are numerous State of the Union prediction markets available for tonight's speech, and if you want to get in on the action, be sure to use our Kalshi promo code to get started.
For a preview of what's available, continue to read as we have included multiple State of the Union prediction markets and odds below.
How Long Will Trump Speak Tonight?
Kalshi has turned something as prosaic as speech length into a hotly traded contract, turning political punditry into quantified crowd wisdom. As of Tuesday morning, Kalshi traders were pricing in over a 70% chance that President Trump’s State of the Union address will exceed 90 minutes, with a noticeable fraction of the market nudging toward even longer durations, including 95+ and 100+ minute thresholds. These probabilities emerge from real money flowing into “Yes” and “No” shares, where each price roughly reflects how confident the crowd feels about Trump’s propensity to hold the podium.
Kalshi lines reflect past behavior, but are blended with present sentiment. Trump’s earlier State of the Union speeches have often clocked in well over an hour, and traders seem to be giving that trend significant weight. But because Kalshi contracts are liquid and respond to every new hint (including leaks, staff commentary, or even a bold White House social post), the implied probability curve can bend in real time, meaning a last-minute tweet could theoretically move the market.
If we're lucky, Trump will mention something as frivolous as aliens to keep the crowd engaged.
Who Will Attend the State of the Union?
Early lines suggest a strong likelihood for a mix of predictable attendees and a few headline-grabbing possibilities: long-serving legislators and familiar Washington faces are trading at high probabilities, while more unpredictable options, like controversial or seldom-seen guests, have markets reflecting a wider range of outcomes. This crowd-sourced “attendance odds” snapshot gives readers a sense of who the market thinks will be in the chamber when the gavel falls at 9 p.m. EST.
What makes these Kalshi attendance markets fun, and occasionally eyebrow-raising, is how they blend institutional regularity with pure conjecture.
Probabilities for members of the Trump family or other notable figures swing based on traders’ perceptions of protocol, drama, and personal schedules. The result is a real-time crowd forecast that feels almost like watching a party RSVP list being drafted live, but with real dollars behind the yeses and nos.
Who Will Trump Mention?
On Kalshi, traders are buying and selling “Yes” or “No” contracts on specific names, with each price reflecting the market’s implied probability of a shout-out. When a name is trading at 75¢, for example, that signals roughly a 75% chance that traders think it will come up during the speech. Heavy favorites include top congressional leaders and geopolitical flashpoints, while more speculative names, think potential 2028 hopefuls or controversial power players, fluctuate as social media chatter and cable news speculation ripple through the market.
What makes these mention markets especially entertaining is how they capture both policy gravity and political theater. If tensions abroad are high, foreign leaders’ probabilities tick upward; if domestic battles dominate headlines, rival politicians climb the board. And given Trump’s well-documented preference for branding moments, traders also weigh the odds of him spotlighting economic metrics, including a likely nod to U.S. GDP growth in Q4 as a proof point for his economic narrative.
In that sense, Kalshi’s lines don’t just predict names; they map the storyline traders expect him to tell, blending cold economic data with the suspense of a live-audience callout.
What Places Will Trump Mention?
Early positioning tends to favor locations tied to ongoing conflicts, trade relationships, or immigration debates, while long-shot cities and states move on late-breaking headlines or strategic leaks. It’s part political forecasting, part map-based moneyball.
What makes these “place mention” markets especially revealing is how they sketch the narrative arc traders expect. If border enforcement is a focal point, southern states climb the board; if global tensions dominate, foreign capitals see their odds rise. Domestic energy hubs also draw attention, particularly if Trump leans into inflation and cost-of-living themes.
Also, don’t be surprised if he talks about U.S. gas prices as a kitchen-table metric meant to resonate far beyond Washington.
What Will Trump Say During the State of the Union?
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most of the 50 U.S. states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections, and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
