The "Trump sues Jimmy Kimmel by May 31?" political prediction market has been steadily gaining traction with Polymarket traders since it first opened on Monday, April 27th.
If you missed it, President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump recently called for ABC to fire Jimmy Kimmel. This was in response to a joke Kimmel made about Melania during an episode of "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" that aired on Thursday, April 23rd.
As a result, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has decided to review some of ABC's local broadcasting licenses, but the Trumps haven't actually filed a lawsuit against Kimmel. Will they do so this month? Here's a look at what Polymarket traders think.
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Trump Sues Jimmy Kimmel By May 31: Polymarket Odds
At the moment, ~95% of Polymarket trades favor no legal action. There was a much more even split when the market first opened (April 27th), with ~43% of traders buying "Yes" contracts.
Between April 27th and 29th, movement was incredibly volatile. On April 28th, around 9 a.m., "Yes" contracts dropped down to ~16%, climbed to ~54% by 10 a.m., then plummeted to ~19% by 11:30 a.m. The yes finished the day at ~12%, and hasn't climbed above 17% since.
Thin markets tend to rapidly fluctuate, but even by those standards, the trends on this one are fascinating. The past couple of days have seen yes percentages remain in single digits, falling as low as ~4.5%. May 31st is a long way off, and the odds are subject to change, so read on as we break down which contracts to buy.
Will Trump Sue Jimmy Kimmel? Prediction Market Analysis
If Trump were to sue, history suggests that could very well happen before May 31st. The first factor to consider is that Trump very much likes to strike while the story is still a hot-button news item to maximize the PR impact. Simply put, using legal filings to stay in the headlines is very often Trump's MO.
Another key component is the timeline of the FCC investigation. ABC must file for early license renewals by May 28th, meaning Trump could then file a personal lawsuit against Kimmel, or against ABC, while listing Kimmel as a co-defendant. This is what's referred to as a "pincer maneuver", aimed to strain ABC's legal team by simultaneously fighting them on two fronts.
In contrast, the way FCC investigations are typically conducted could strengthen the possibility of no lawsuit. Once the renewal applications are submitted by the May 28th deadline, the discovery phase begins, and that can take anywhere from 6-18 months.
The FCC has also claimed "DEI practices" and "news distortion" and not the Kimmel joke itself as its official reasons for launching this probe, meaning it could technically proceed indefinitely. While Trump's legal team has likely already prepped a cease and desist letter, a formal announcement of intent to sue will be the ultimate timeline clue.
In the past, the amount of time between Trump announcing and filing has been around 10 days, meaning he would likely have to announce his intent to sue by May 21st to fully ensure it got filed by the month's end. A docket entry in either a Florida or DC federal court around mid-May would be another tell that traders could use to their advantage.
Overall, there's more value to be found in "Yes" than "No" contracts. On one hand, buying the yes for ~7 cents is currently the better move, as Polymarket odds are quite far apart for what could actually be a statistical coin flip. "No" contracts are much more expensive at ~98 cents, but we'd recommend keeping an eye on them and buying if they ever dip below 90 cents.
When Will This Market Conclude?
Look to the list below for the official Polymarket rules surrounding the resolution of "Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31".
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump initiates a lawsuit against Jimmy Kimmel by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- An announcement of intent to sue or a legal threat will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution; a lawsuit must actually be filed in court.
- The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant court. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
