The conflict in the Middle East continues to escalate and brings not only severe humanitarian consequences, but also major economic ones — most notably a sharp surge in oil prices.
Attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s crude oil flows, have reduced maritime traffic and raised prices. Although the Iranian government has officially denied that the strait has been closed, the country’s Revolutionary Guard has suggested otherwise and has threatened to attack any ship attempting to pass through the waterway.
If you want to make a prediction on whether Iran will effectively close the Strait of Hormuz for 7+ days, Kalshi allows users in most of the 50 U.S. states to place predictions and win real money. We wrote a full explainer of how it works here and have a Kalshi promo code to help you get started.
Will Iran Effectively Close the Strait of Hormuz for 7+ Days?
First and foremost, it is important to read this market's contract terms, which are quite clear. The strait is considered “effectively closed” not when any Iranian authority declares it so, but when the seven-day moving average of commercial vessel transits (both cargo and tanker ships) falls by 90% or more, compared to the seven-day moving average 30 days prior to the alleged closure.
This definition is key in determining the starting point for counting the seven days or more that would qualify as a closure in this market. Analysis from private firms such as Kpler suggests the 90% disruption threshold may already have been reached, although other companies tracking maritime traffic haven't reached the same conclusion.
The most relevant source here is PortWatch, the shipping monitoring platform run by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). According to its latest official data, 15 vessels passed through the strait on March 1, roughly 24 hours after the start of this new phase of the conflict. One week earlier, on February 22, 64 ships transited the same route — a weekly comparative decline of about 75%.
Against that backdrop, contracts predicting that the 90% reduction will occur before May have been rising sharply, climbing from around 28 cents to 60 cents in less than a week. Given that there is no clear resolution to the conflict in sight, that price may still represent solid value for buyers.
President Donald Trump has said the U.S. Navy will protect ships “if necessary,” although it remains unclear whether that amounts to an effective guarantee, particularly as insurance costs for vessels continue to rise with each new attack in the region.
For all those reasons, contracts betting “Yes” on a closure are continuing to gain momentum. There may also be value in buying contracts that price a closure to occur before August (60 cents) and before January 1, 2027 (56 cents).
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most of the 50 states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections, and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
