Tyler Jacobsma is the founder of Flowframe.xyz, which provides in-depth content and tools for prediction market traders.
Kalshi prices John Cornyn at 21¢ and Ken Paxton at 80¢ in the Texas Republican Senate primary.
The spending gap, early voting demographics, and Trump withholding his endorsement point to a much closer race and significant value on the underdog.
Position: BUY Cornyn YES (KXSENATETXR-26-JC) at 21¢
Fair Value: ~40%
Edge: ~19 cents
Conviction: 7/10
Key Date: March 3 Primary (runoff May 26, 2026)
If you're curious, be sure to use our Kalshi promo code to get started.
How This Race Works
Texas primaries have a quirk most states don't: you need more than 50% of the vote to win outright.
If nobody clears that threshold, the top two finishers go to a second election called a runoff, which is held about 10 weeks later, usually with much lower voter turnout.
Three Republicans are on the March 3 ballot: four-term incumbent Senator Cornyn, Attorney General Paxton, and Congressman Wesley Hunt. Every poll shows the vote splitting roughly three ways. It's unlikely that anyone hits 50%, which means a Paxton vs. Cornyn runoff on May 26 is essentially guaranteed.
Where the Market Stands
Kalshi's KXSENATETXR-26 prices Paxton at 80¢ and Cornyn at 21¢ on $1.85 million in volume. The market treats this as an 80-20 race, but I don’t think it is.
These are the results from a February 2026 Poll:
| Poll (Feb. 2026) | Paxton | Cornyn | Hunt |
|---|---|---|---|
| UT/Texas Politics Project | 36% | 34% | 26% |
| UT Hobby School | 38% | 31% | 17% |
| Emerson/Nexstar | 27% | 26% | 16% |
Why the Market Favors Paxton
Runoffs in Republican primaries tend to favor the more conservative, base-aligned candidate. Turnout drops dramatically, sometimes even 40% below the original primary, which filters out moderate and occasional voters. What's less is the hardened partisan base.
The UT Hobby School modeled a hypothetical Paxton-Cornyn runoff directly: Paxton leads 51- 40 once Hunt is out.
His 72% favorability among likely primary voters means the base has already processed his legal scandals and moved on. The 80¢ price reflects all of this.
The polls show Paxton ahead, but by single digits, not by 60 points.
What the Market is Getting Wrong
Money
Cornyn has $8.5 million in campaign cash plus over $50 million in Super PAC commitments.
Rick Perry, chairing the pro-Cornyn Lone Star Freedom Project, told the Texas Tribune the group would spend "whatever we need." Paxton has $2.5 million.
In a 10-week, low-turnout runoff, 4:1 spending is a big advantage.
Trump didn't endorse Paxton
Paxton's core argument is that Cornyn is a sellout, an anti-Trump establishment Republican.
That attack only works if Trump agrees. Trump visited Corpus Christi on Feb 27, declined to endorse anyone, then the next morning endorsed the Governor, Lt. Governor, and other Texas officials, skipping the Senate race.
Cornyn flew on Air Force One with Trump and immediately posted the photos.
Without Trump's blessing, the RINO attack doesn't land.
The early voting electorate guarantees Cornyn reaches the runoff.
Hobby School data shows 41% of Republican primary early voters were over 70. Only 14% were under 50.
That demographic favors Cornyn on March 3; that's why Hunt collapses and Cornyn finishes second. Yes, that voter group thins out in a low-turnout runoff. But Cornyn has to get there first, and this electorate guarantees he does.
Democrats are surging, which makes Paxton a liability.
Democratic early voting exceeded Republican early voting for the first time in Texas midterm history.
A Democrat recently flipped a state Senate seat that Trump won by 17 points. Emerson polling shows Cornyn beating both Democratic nominees in November (+5, +3). Paxton ties both.
Add it up: a well-funded incumbent, Trump withholding the one endorsement that would sink him, a favorable demographic environment, and a strong electability argument.
The runoff data shows Paxton ahead 51-40, but that's a coin flip range, not an 80-20 lead.
Risks
- Trump could endorse Paxton any time between March 3 and May 26. That's a 10-15 point shift and the biggest threat to this position.
- Runoff turnout really does filter toward Paxton's base. The 51-40 polling is real.
- Hunt's voters lean anti-establishment. Most won't flip to Cornyn in the runoff.
The Trade
The edge here isn't in the final resolution, it's in the repricing. The market is treating this as an 80-20 race. As the runoff becomes a reality, that gap should tighten.
Entry: Cornyn YES at 21¢
| Level | Target Price | Trigger | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ~32% | March 3 confirms runoff; market processes Cornyn's cash advantage | Sell 40% of position |
| 2 | ~40% | Post-March 3 runoff polling shows Paxton ahead by fewer than 8 points | Sell another 35% |
| 3 | Hold | Let the remainder ride toward fair value (45¢) or resolution | Sell remaining 25% near |
The core logic: you don't need Cornyn to win to profit. You need the market to recognize this isn't a 4:1 race.
March 3 alone, confirming the runoff, locking in Cornyn's spending advantage, proving Hunt can't compete, should push Cornyn from 21¢ into the low 30s. That's a 50% return on your first entry before a single runoff ballot is cast.
Hard exit: If Trump endorses Paxton at any point, sell immediately. The RINO attack becomes credible and the 51-40 runoff polling gets worse.
Bottom Line
We have to respect the prediction markets' odds, which have proven to be more accurate than polls; they give Paxton a huge lead.
We don’t want to fade that final outcome; we simply want to catch the potential Cornyn odds bounce and then exit for a profit.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections, and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment, and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
