As the March 3 primary for the Texas Democratic Senate nomination draws near, political bettors and market watchers are turning their attention to an increasingly high-stakes head-to-head between James Talarico and Jasmine Crockett. Prediction markets like Kalshi currently paint Talarico as the favored candidate with market odds showing him well ahead of Crockett in terms of the probability of securing the Democratic nomination.
These odds distill a wide range of real-time information and trader sentiment into a single snapshot of expectations, offering an intriguing contrast with traditional polling data.
Yet outside the markets, the race tells a more nuanced story. Recent public opinion surveys have alternately shown Crockett leading, sometimes by double digits, and Talarico gaining traction in certain polls, reflecting a split electorate and a campaign characterized by intense competition and divergent strengths.
While Crockett’s appeal among core Democratic voters has powered her ahead in some surveys, Talarico’s fundraising momentum and media attention have helped buoy his odds in prediction markets. As the primary approaches, Kalshi’s odds offer a fascinating lens into how traders, and perhaps the broader public, are interpreting the likelihood of each candidate’s success in this pivotal Texas contest
If you want to get in on the action and make a prediction on who will represent the Democrats in Texas' Senate race, Kalshi allows users in most of the 50 U.S. states to place predictions and win real money. We wrote a full explainer on how it works here and have a Kalshi promo code to help you get started.
Texas Democratic Senate Nominee Odds
James Talarico has emerged as the clear favorite to win the Texas Democratic Senate primary, with Kalshi markets pricing his victory at 72 cents, representing a 72% probability, while Rep. Jasmine Crockett trades at just 30 cents despite leading in some traditional polls.
The prediction market shows a stark contrast to recent polling data, with Talarico's shares bid at 71-72 cents on heavy volume of nearly 2 million contracts traded. Crockett's odds sit at 29-30 cents (29-30% probability), suggesting traders believe the state representative's Christian faith-centered campaign message is resonating more effectively than public surveys indicate.
This market-poll divergence highlights the complexity of the March 3 primary race. While New York Times polling data shows competitive positioning between the candidates, and Nate Silver's analysis noted that "nonpartisan polls give Crockett the edge," prediction market participants are clearly betting against those conventional metrics. The University of Texas/Texas Politics Project has described the competition as "fierce" in both parties' Senate primaries.
Also read: Odds of Early US–Iran Nuclear Deal Fall
The Democratic primary winner will face a challenging general election landscape, as Texas hasn't elected a non-incumbent Democrat to the Senate since 1970. The Republican side features its own competitive battle, with Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt challenging incumbent Senator John Cornyn.
Talarico, a state representative who has made his Christian faith a centerpiece of his campaign, appears to have convinced traders that his message will play better in a Texas Democratic primary than Crockett's higher-profile status as a frequent Trump target and rising party star. The significant trading volume of over 1.9 million contracts on both candidates suggests substantial investor confidence in these odds, making Talarico the clear betting favorite heading into next week's primary.
My pick: Take Talarico at Kalshi as voters bank on his ability to draw in moderate Republicans and center-right voters who are disenchanted with the MAGA movement.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most of the 50 states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections, and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
