Iran will choose a new Supreme Leader following the death of Ali Khamenei after the US-Israeli strikes.
If you want to make a prediction on who will be the next Supreme Leader of Iran, Kalshi allows users in most of the 50 U.S. states to place predictions and win real money. We wrote a full explainer of how it works here and have a Kalshi promo code to help you get started.
Who Will Be Iran’s Next Supreme Leader?
Following the death of Ali Khamenei, the Assembly of Experts — an 88-member clerical body — must select a new Supreme Leader. The decision requires a majority of the representatives present at the session.
There is no clear favorite, although the name most frequently mentioned is Alireza Arafi. Contracts on Kalshi backing him to become the new ayatollah rose from about 4 to 37 cents in the first few hours after Khamenei’s death was confirmed.
At that price, he still has value. He has been named to Iran’s interim Leadership Council and, according to market rules, outcomes are determined by who actually assumes the office of Supreme Leader, not who is elected or nominated. Acting or interim appointments count as holding the position if they formally assume the office.
Arafi has several strengths, including the blend of religious authority and political influence that defines Iran’s power structure. His main weakness is a reportedly limited tie to the Armed Forces.
Second in the odds is Hassan Khomeini. Younger than another frequently mentioned name (he is 53), contracts projecting him as the next Supreme Leader remain relatively stable at around 12 cents.
That stability reflects lingering doubts about his potential appointment. He is the grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic, which gives him a revolutionary connection, though he is considered a moderate, and there is still uncertainty about whether that is the profile sought after recent attacks.
With similar chances is Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, the late leader’s son. Although he has long been mentioned as a possible successor, contracts backing him as the next leader have declined in price as the prospect of a hereditary succession weighs against him.
Kalshi also lists contracts tied to the possibility that the position could be abolished. For now, that scenario lacks momentum — not only because of Iran’s theocratic nature, but also for legal reasons. Article 111 of the Iranian Constitution states that the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic is to be appointed by the Assembly of Experts.
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz this year?
Attention has also focused on the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic waterway separating Iran and Oman through which roughly 20% of global crude and significant volumes of gas transit.
After the latest strikes, the implied probability of a closure before the end of this year increased, with Kalshi contract prices for that happening before May moving from about 47 cents to roughly 58 cents on Saturday, before falling to 36 cents after there was no official news on the matter.
Some major shipping companies announced a temporary suspension of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions in the Middle East. Meanwhile, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard warned that maritime transit through the Strait of Hormuz is no longer safe.
Beyond that, there have been no announcements of a formal closure. There are recent precedents for disruption, but the market largely does not see a closure as likely. The odds of this happening before August stand close to 40%, and the odds of it happening before January 1, 2027, are nearly 43%.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most of the 50 states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections, and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
