Tyler Jacobsma is the founder of Flowframe.xyz, which provides in-depth content and tools for prediction market traders.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt is scheduled to give her next briefing today, March 25, at 1:00pm EDT.
There is a live market at Kalshi with $223,771 in volume asking not what policy Leavitt will announce, but which words will leave her mouth. The resulting probability list is a real-time priority ranking of the executive branch.
Here is how the rankings break down.
The Near-Certainties (75%+)
"TSA" — 89%. The DHS shutdown has entered a new phase: agents are actively leaving, and checkpoint closures at secondary airports are accelerating. This is no longer an abstract budget dispute. It has become a visible problem, and Leavitt will address it directly.
"Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation" — 88%. The second-highest word in the market and arguably the most revealing. Trump announced a 5-day pause on planned strikes against Iranian power plants last week, citing "very productive conversations" with Tehran. The White House is now publicly using the language of negotiation. Leavitt will reflect that.
"Save Act / Save America Act" — 86%. Senate floor debate on the voter-ID bill is active. Trump has made passage a condition for signing other legislation. The bill has moved from a talking point to an open legislative front, and Leavitt has defended it at length in recent briefings.
"Nuclear" — 85%. The administration's public framing of the Iran operation increasingly centers on Iranian nuclear capabilities as the justification for U.S. military action.
"Illegal Alien" — 82%. Standard administration vocabulary, but elevated here because the DHS shutdown debate has fully merged with the immigration enforcement debate. The White House is tying TSA, ICE, border security, and the SAVE Act into one unified messaging frame.
"Hormuz" — 78%. The Strait remains largely closed. Oil is above $90. The administration has been publicly pressuring NATO allies to contribute naval assets to secure the waterway. This is an active operational talking point.
"Biden" — 75%. The prior-administration blame cycle is a fixture of this press corps. It shows up regardless of the day's primary topic, and the DHS shutdown has given the White House fresh ammunition to use it.
The Contested Middle (45–75%)
"Border" — 71%. Consistent with the broader DHS and immigration enforcement messaging frame that is dominating the upper tier.
"Sanctuary" — 67%. Sanctuary city policies have re-entered the briefing room as the administration ties the DHS shutdown to local law enforcement cooperation. Expect Leavitt to use this as a rhetorical contrast point.
"Israel" — 59%. The U.S.-Israel joint operation on Iran is ongoing, but recent briefings have conspicuously framed the strikes as American-led. The market is pricing a meaningful probability that "Israel" does not appear at all — which itself would be a deliberate messaging choice.
"Epic Fury" — 57%. The military operation's codename. If the administration has shifted toward negotiation language, it has less incentive to lead with wartime branding. The market sees this as a coin flip.
"Affordable / Affordability" — 56%. Gas prices above $4.50 nationally and persistent grocery inflation are beginning to register politically. When a press secretary starts leading with affordability language alongside war updates, it signals the administration is in economic damage-control mode. This word is just above a coin flip.
"China" — 55%. Trade tensions with China have remained in the background during the Iran operation, but the 15% global tariff continues to affect consumer prices. At 55%, traders think the press corps might force the issue even if the White House does not volunteer it.
"FBI" — 49%. DOJ controversies, the Epstein files, and ongoing investigations keep this in the mix without pushing it higher. Essentially a coin flip.
"Transgender" — 45%. The SAVE Act floor debate has opened the door to culture-war amendments. Trump personally demanded anti-trans provisions be included. If the White House is actively pushing this framing, Leavitt will carry it to the podium.
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What the Word List Is Actually Telling You
These odds are a ranked priority list for the most powerful office on Earth. And what this list is saying right now:
Negotiation has entered the frame. "Negotiate" at 88% is the market's clearest signal about where the administration's Iran posture has moved. Trump's public announcement of a pause and "productive conversations" has shifted the White House's rhetorical mode from pure military framing toward something more transactional. That has implications for how long the Strait stays closed and what oil markets do if the talks progress.
The DHS shutdown is now a crisis. "TSA" leading the list at 89% is different from "Shutdown" leading. TSA is a specific problem — checkpoints closing, agents leaving, airports degrading in real time. The White House messaging has moved from blaming Democrats to responding to operational failure.
The SAVE Act is a coordinated legislative push. "Save Act" at 86% alongside "Illegal Alien" at 82%, "Border" at 71%, "Sanctuary" at 67%, and "Transgender" at 45% is not a coincidence. These words are a unified messaging campaign tied to the Senate floor debate. The White House is running a coordinated script.
Things not being talked about are equally important. "Tariff" at 38%, "Ukraine" at 35%, "Supreme Court" at 25%, "Healthcare" at 16%, "Stock Market" at 14%. Each of these was a front-page issue within the last six months. The war and the shutdown have consumed all available bandwidth.
The Trade
YES on "Negotiate" at 88%. The highest-conviction entry in the market. Trump's own public statements have established negotiation as the administration's current Iran framing. At 88%, the payout is modest, but so is the risk.
YES on "Nuclear" at 85%. The best value in the near-certainty tier. The administration has been escalating its nuclear framing of the Iran operation, not pulling back. At 85%, you are being paid roughly 15 cents on the dollar for what the environment and context of the war suggest is close to a certainty.
YES on "Transgender" at 45%. The fastest-moving word relative to its position. SAVE Act floor debate is pulling culture war language back into the active briefing agenda, and Trump's personal intervention on anti-trans provisions has given Leavitt a specific policy hook. At 45%, you are getting roughly even money on a word with strong upward momentum behind it.
