The "Will gas hit __ by end of April?" market has been a favorite of Polymarket traders since its March 31st debut.
Ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran have dominated the headlines since late February, and unsuccessful peace talks continue to drive up the national average of US gasoline prices.
So, how high will the price of gas rise before April ends? Here's a look at what Polymarket traders think.
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Which Gas Prices Will Hit By the End of April? Live Polymarket Odds
As you can see in the table above, the greater majority of Polymarket traders believe the price of gas could eclipse $4.25 per gallon before the month is up. That said, the volume is fairly well-dispersed throughout the four highest outcomes.
$4.25 has generated the second-most volume (~$65,000), while $5.00 leads the pack (~$70,000), then there's a steady drop-off to $4.75 (~$46,000) and $4.50 (~$30,000). Read on to learn more about gas prices and which outcomes and contracts we recommend.
How High Are Gas Prices Expected to Climb?
US citizens woke up to some not-so-nice news this morning, as the national average of regular gasoline hit $4.23 per gallon. This is the highest mark in four years, and there's reason to believe that number could grow beyond the popular $4.25 outcome.
Simply put, the recent spike in crude oil prices will likely grow even higher as tensions worsen throughout the Middle East, and this is especially true with the Strait of Hormuz being the focal point of said instability.
Around 20% of the world's oil passes through this strait, and any kind of shipping disruption (or just the mere threat of one) means a "risk premium" is tacked onto the price of each barrel. With US-Iran peace talks stalling, there isn't any indication of upcoming sanctions relief, meaning global supply is likely to drop as spring approaches.
Speaking of changing seasons, most refineries will have transitioned from a "winter-blend" to a "summer-blend" gasoline by late April. Gasoline produced during the summer is more expensive than its winter counterpart, creating yet another reason gasoline prices are expected to surge.
As such, it's no surprise that all of the Polymarket outcomes above $4.00 per gallon are generating the most volume. The $5.00 market is by far the most unlikely, meaning the volume likely stems from the sneaky value to be had on the off-chance it happens. We wouldn't recommend that contract, though buying "Yes" contracts at 2 cents or less is a very cheap way to get involved.
When it comes to the second-most popular outcome by volume ($4.25), we'd suggest buying the "Yes" as 5-10 cents in potential profit per contract is a nice margin given the odds.
Additionally, while much less probable, buying the yes of the $4.50 outcome for around 8-10 cents per contract is another decent risk to take.
When Will This Market Conclude?
Look to the list below for the official Polymarket rules surrounding the resolution of "Will gas hit __ by end of April?"
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
- Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
- The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
