The "Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?" politics market has been attracting the attention of a lot of Polymarket traders since opening on Monday, April 27th.
Recent pressure from President Donald Trump spurred the creation of this market following a joke in which Kimmel referred to First Lady Melania Trump as an "expectant widow".
Will Kimmel face any consequences? Here's a look at what Polymarket traders think.
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Jimmy Kimmel Fired/Resigns By May 31: Polymarket Odds
At the moment, Polymarket trades are generally bullish on Kimmel staying put. When the market first opened, traders were buying "Yes" contracts at around a 40% clip. Toward the end of that same day, the yes dipped to 8%, and it hasn't risen above 10% since.
With just over a month until resolution, there's plenty of time for contracts to be bought and odds to change, but which contracts should you buy, and when?
Jimmy Kimmel Fired/Resigns By May 31: Prediction Market Analysis
The series of events leading up to the creation of this market began during a recent episode of "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" (airing on Thursday, April 23rd). The skit featured Kimmel pretending to host the White House Correspondents' Association dinner, where he said: "Mrs. Trump, you have a glow like an expectant widow."
Donald and Melania Trump were both incensed by Kimmel's comment. As a result, the White House is asking ABC and Disney to fire Kimmel immediately, citing his words to be a "despicable call to violence" among other things.
For traders struggling to decide what's to come, there is some precedent set by a similar situation from September 2025. As you may remember, Kimmel was briefly suspended due to comments he had made about the assassination of Charlie Kirk.
On one hand, ABC's decision to reinstate Kimmel after a fairly brief layoff highlights the network's loyalty to him. Kimmel was also given a contract extension just before 2025 came to a close, locking him up through 2027.
These factors suggest Kimmel won't face resignation or termination, but there's still reason to believe it's possible. This time around, reports indicate the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has decided to review some of ABC's local broadcasting licenses, which some critics believe is notable political pressure against the network.
Kimmel has himself addressed the Trump's demands, stating his comment was a "very light roast joke". This is in line with his longstanding position against gun violence, which he also reiterated.
Emotions surrounding this incident are likely being exacerbated by an attempted assassination at the actual White House Correspondents' Association dinner, just two days after Kimmel's remarks. Naturally, there's no way to confirm the incidents are connected, but that, along with the FCC investigation, is enough reason to believe a Kimmel resignation or firing is somewhat possible.
Overall, it makes sense that most traders are buying "No" contracts for around 95 cents, but there's also some decent value in hedging with incredibly cheap "Yes" contracts at around 6 cents.
Note: This market will only resolve to "Yes" if there's a firing or resignation announcement prior to May 31, 2026, at 11:59 p.m. ET. Suspensions, administrative leave, or any other temporary disciplinary action will not qualify.
When Will This Market Conclude?
Look to the list below for the official Polymarket rules surrounding the resolution of "Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31".
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Kimmel ceases to be the host of "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" for any length of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- An announcement of Kimmel's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Suspensions, administrative leave, or other temporary measures will not qualify.
- The primary resolution source will be official information from ABC or Disney in tandem with a wide consensus of other credible reporting.
