Tyler Jacobsma is the founder of Flowframe.xyz, which provides in-depth content and tools for prediction market traders.
Two markets this week, both California politics, both showing the top traders taking a firm directional stance. The Spencer Pratt mayoral market has the top traders unanimously on NO with $140K committed. The Gavin Newsom 2028 presidential market has them unanimously on YES.
View the full Smart Money tool and all top trader positions at flowframe.xyz/smart-money.
Will Spencer Pratt Win the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election?
- Current price: 19% YES
- Top 30 positioning: 3 of the top 30 are in this market. All 3 on NO. Zero on YES.
- Combined position size: $140K
Who’s Betting What
Every top trader in this market is on the same side, and that side is NO. The biggest position is $124K from a trader who entered at 76%, meaning they paid 24¢ for NO, and is now up 6% as the price has moved their way. A second position holds $16K, entered at 82% (paying 18¢ for NO) and roughly flat. Nobody is on YES.
The market is at 19% YES. The top traders have $140K riding on Pratt not winning the mayor's office. At 19% YES, a NO contract pays roughly 1.2x, not a huge multiple, but the smart money is treating this as a high-probability outcome, not a long shot.
What It Might Signal
We wrote about the Pratt mispricing weeks ago, back when the market was pricing him near 27% and the polls capped him at 14%.
Since then, two things have happened. Pratt has actually surged. He's now polling around 22% in the Emerson survey and has climbed to second place in some polls, positioning himself to potentially make the November runoff. And the market on Pratt winning the whole election has dropped from the high 20s to 19%.
That gap between "makes the runoff" and "wins the office" is exactly what the smart money is trading. Pratt can absolutely finish in the top two on June 2 and advance to November, the polls support that.
What he almost certainly can't do is beat a sitting Democratic mayor in a one-on-one runoff in a deep-blue city. At least this is what the top traders’ positions are telling us, the bar to actually win the election in a runoff will be too tall of a task.
The Context
The latest UC Berkeley/LA Times poll shows a razor-thin three-way race: Bass at 26%, Raman at 25%, Pratt at 22%.
Pratt has run an aggressive campaign centered on the Palisades fire and homelessness, and he's gotten genuine traction hammering Bass on the city's wildfire response.
But Gavin Newsom endorsed Bass this week, the labor unions are lining up behind her, and the structural reality of a deep-blue city hasn't changed.
Pratt is an independent with past Republican support running where registered Democrats dominate. The smart money is betting that even if he makes the runoff, Los Angeles won't hand the office to a reality star over an incumbent Democrat.
What to Watch
The June 2 primary is the first gate. If Pratt makes the runoff, this contract stays live through November and the NO position keeps riding.
If Pratt somehow wins outright on June 2, which would require clearing 50%, an almost impossible bar in a three-way race, the NO position takes a hit.
The far more likely path is a Pratt runoff berth followed by a November loss, which is what the $140K is betting on.
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Will Gavin Newsom Win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- Current price: 16% YES
- Top 30 positioning: 4 of the top 30 are in this market. All 4 on YES. Zero on NO.
- Combined position size: $45K
Who’s Betting What
Every top trader here is on YES. The biggest position is $35K, entered at 17% and currently down 8% as the price slipped to 16%. A $7K position entered right at 16% and is essentially flat. A smaller $3K position entered at 19% and is down 18%. Nobody is on NO.
At 16% YES, a contract pays roughly 6.3x if it resolves. This is the opposite of the Pratt trade, instead of collecting a small premium on a high-probability NO, the smart money is making a leveraged bet that a frontrunner is being underpriced more than two years out.
What It Might Signal
The top traders think 16% is too cheap for Newsom to win the whole thing. Here's the logic: Newsom leads the Democratic nomination field at roughly 27-38% depending on the platform, which makes him the clear frontrunner for his party.
He's also roughly tied with JD Vance at the top of the overall 2028 presidential market, where Vance sits around 18% and Newsom around 16%. If you believe Newsom has a strong shot at the nomination and the general is close to a coin flip between the parties, then 16% to win the presidency outright is arguably low.
The smart money appears to be pricing Newsom's path at a 29% implied chance while it’s currently sitting at 16%. He could win the nomination, then win a competitive general. The $35K lead position entered at 17% and is holding through the small dip to 16%.
The Context
Newsom has spent 2026 positioning hard for a run. He pushed through a California redistricting initiative widely viewed as a political win, he's been making early-state appearances in South Carolina and Houston, and his strategy of trolling Trump online has raised his profile as the leading anti-Trump Democrat. He's moved from "wildly premature" to "I could see myself stepping into that void," and rival operatives reportedly view him as "the guy to beat."
The risks are real. It's more than two years out. Harris, Ocasio-Cortez, and Shapiro are all in the mix, a California budget shortfall could weaken his record, and the general electorate's appetite for a California progressive is an open question. But the smart money isn't betting Newsom is a lock, they're betting 16% under prices a candidate who is simultaneously the nomination frontrunner and a co-leader in the overall race.
What to Watch
The 2026 midterms are the next major catalyst. Newsom has said he'll give the run "serious thought" after November. A strong Democratic midterm performance, especially in California, strengthens his position. Any formal announcement of a presidential bid would likely move this contract higher.
On the downside, a strong challenger consolidating support or a Newsom stumble on the national stage would pressure the YES position.
The Wrap
Two markets, two opposite trade structures, same disciplined approach. On Pratt, the smart money is collecting a modest premium on a high-probability NO, betting that a reality star can make a runoff but can't win a Democratic city outright. On Newsom, they're making a leveraged bet that a frontrunner is being underpriced at 16% more than two years before the election.
Past P&L doesn't guarantee future accuracy. But when every top trader in a market lands on the same side with real size, it's worth understanding why before you take the other side of their bet.
See all top trader positions across every Polymarket contract at flowframe.xyz/smart-money.
