Being a World Cup host would give any national team an extra boost, and the USMNT is no exception.
Mauricio Pochettino's side has been trending in the right direction for a while, but the arrival of the Argentine manager in 2024 accelerated the process. No, the United States isn't suddenly a World Cup favorite; let's not get carried away, but it is a team that has become increasingly competitive, and one nobody will be excited to face.
The USMNT reached the Round of 16 in Qatar 2022 before being eliminated by Belgium, and there is a growing belief that this generation can push beyond that barrier. So, let's see what Polymarket traders are predicting.
United States World Cup Polymarket Odds, Analysis
The prediction market currently gives the USMNT just a 1% chance of lifting the trophy on home soil. Unfortunately for the USMNT, that's simply the reality of competing in a tournament that also features France, Spain, England, Argentina, and Portugal.
Where things become a little bit more interesting is the path through the tournament because Polymarket gives the United States an 86% chance of reaching the knockout stage, which suggests traders are fairly confident the hosts will avoid an early disaster in Group D.
After that, however, the probabilities start to drop quickly.
The USMNT is given a 45% chance of reaching the Round of 16, a 22% chance of making the quarterfinals, an 8% chance of reaching the semifinals, and only a 3% chance of playing in the final.
Recent friendlies have already provided a glimpse of what this team can be. The United States defeated Senegal 3-2 thanks to goals from Sergiño Dest, Christian Pulisic and Folarin Balogun, so Pochettino remains optimistic about his squad's attacking potential.
