Right now, two crowds are pricing the same election, and they don't agree.
Pollsters call thousands of likely voters and average the results into a model that updates every few days. On the other hand, traders on Polymarket put real money behind their predictions, and the price moves within minutes of breaking news.
Both are trying to answer the same question: who runs Washington after the midterms elections on November 3?
Now their answers are further apart than you might expect, and that gap is exactly what this tracker will follow every week between now and Election Day.
What's Actually on the Ballot for the 2026 Midterms
Before comparing numbers, it helps to know the scale of what's being decided.
All 435 U.S. House seats.
Republicans hold a narrow majority; Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to flip it.
35 of the 100 Senate seats.
Republicans currently hold 53; Democrats need a net gain of four to take control outright.
36 governorships.
Several with no incumbent on the ballot at all.
House Control Predictions: Where Polymarket Runs Hotter Than the Polls
The New York Times's House forecast currently gives Democrats roughly a seven-in-ten chance at the majority, projecting around 229 seats against 206 for Republicans: comfortably past the 218 needed to win.
Polymarket traders are considerably more confident than that.
On the Which party will win the House in 2026? market, Democrats are trading in the low-to-mid 80s, with Republicans down near 20.
Part of the gap traces back to redistricting: a Supreme Court ruling that weakened Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act opened the door to new maps in Tennessee, Louisiana, Missouri and Florida, and traders repriced those changes the moment they landed rather than waiting for the next model update.
Meanwhile, Democrats keep polling with a mid-single-digit lead on the generic ballot, the number both sides watch most closely.
Senate Control 2026: The Number Everyone Should Be Watching
The New York Times's Senate model calls the chamber close to a coin flip, with Democrats just above 50% and projected seats splitting roughly 50-50.
Polymarket sees more separation.
On its Senate control market, Republicans are trading in the mid-50s: a clearer edge than the polling model shows.
The reason is structural: Republicans are simply defending fewer competitive seats this cycle, and traders have that map advantage priced in even as the national environment favors Democrats. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell told reporters in May that Republicans would keep a "solid majority," and the market moved slightly in that direction the same day.
Where the Two Crowds Agree, and Where They Split
Alaska:
Both sides call Dan Sullivan versus Mary Peltola a toss-up.
According to Polymarket, right now Democrats are 55% likely to win.
According to The New York Times, Republicans are 54.3% likey to win.
Ohio:
The clearest split on the board.
Polymarket traders lean Republican, on the back of Jon Husted: 51%.
The New York Times polling-based ratings still lean Democrat for Sherrod Brown: 68.4%.
Georgia and North Carolina:
Agreement.
Both Polymartket and The New York Times leans Democrat here, for Jon Ossoff and Roy Cooper respectively.
Texas:
Toss-up on both maps.
Polymarket leans Republican with Ken Paxton: 56%.
The New York Times leans Democrat with James Talarico: 58.6%.
Iowa:
According to traders on Polymarket, it's slightley red. According to The New York Times, it's a toss-up.
Polymarket leans Republican with 57%.
The New York Times also leans Republican with Ashley Hinson: 59.3%.
Maine:
Traders think it's Democrat. The New York Times still paints it as a toss-up.
According to Polymarket: 64% Democrat.
According to The New York Times: 60.5% Democrat.
2026 Governor Races: The Quiet Battleground
Thirty-six governorships are up, and several have no incumbent at all: Arizona, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, and New Mexico among them, which forecasters call toss-ups rather than safe holds.
Georgia
Is one of the cleanest head-to-head to watch.
Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms and Republican Rick Jackson are trading close to even on Polymarket, roughly 51% Republican to 50% Democrat.
Ohio
Seems to be the other head-to-head to watch.
Polymarket traders leans Republican with Vivek Ramaswamy: 53%
The New York Times polls too, with 59% for Republican Vivek Ramaswamy.
Two crowds, One Election
And for now, two different stories.
Between redistricting fights, primary surprises and a presidential approval rating that keeps sliding, the gap between what people say and what traders are willing to put money behind is only going to get more interesting between now and November 3.
