The FIFA World Cup is right around the corner. In just a few days, the entire world will be breathing soccer with one shared goal: finding out who will become the next World Champion.
In nearly 100 years of FIFA World Cup history, 22 editions have been played, yet only eight countries have had the privilege of lifting soccer's most coveted trophy: Brazil (5), Italy (4), Germany (4), Argentina (3), Uruguay (2), France (2), England (1), and Spain (1).
With the new 48-team format in place, will it be easier for a new nation to join that exclusive list? We’ll have to wait for the World Cup to begin to find out, but eager Kalshi traders already seem to have a clear opinion.
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Will the World Cup Winner be a 1st-Time Champion?
If a country that has never won a Men's FIFA World Cup Tournament wins the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. However, if any of the eight countries listed above win the 2026 World Cup, the market will resolve to No.
Will There Be a 1st Time Winner? Market Analysis
If we’re looking for nations capable of making a historic run and lifting the trophy this year, we have to keep an eye on Portugal, the Netherlands, Morocco, Colombia, and, why not, Japan as well. These teams have shown tremendous growth over the past few years, especially at the international level, while many of their players have also continued to shine with their clubs.
While there’s never anything guaranteed in soccer, I don’t believe we’ll see a first-time winner at this World Cup. Not because there aren’t legitimate contenders capable of pulling off a historic run and joining the elite group of champions, but because there are several powerhouses among the clubs that have already lifted the trophy. It's hard to go against Ousmane Dembele and Kylian Mbappe’s France, Lamine Yamal’s Spain, and the reigning champions, Argentina, led by Lionel Messi.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections, and even weather.
Also, Kalshi's refer-a-friend program is a "win-win" for prediction market traders. By inviting a friend to the platform, both you and your friend receive a $25 credit once you both meet the initial trading requirements.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment, and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
