Kalshi has this as a single question across four remaining deadlines: Will Donald Trump be impeached?
A YES on this contract settles when the US House of Representatives passes at least one article of impeachment by simple majority (218 votes). The rungs climb with time alone, from under 1% before September 2026 to 3.3% before 2027, 24% before March 2027, and 56% before January 1, 2028, each later date giving the House more room to reach a vote.
Notably, this is not an impeachment AND removal contract, which would require a successful House vote followed by a two-thirds Senate conviction (67 votes), a far higher hurdle, and currently sitting at just 17% YES on a separate Kalshi contract.
Will Donald Trump be Impeached? Latest Kalshi Odds
The tempting read is that a 56% line on impeachment in 2027 is just a cheaper version of the Democrats-taking-the-House market in disguise, currently 83% on Kalshi. A Republican House will not impeach Trump, so a YES requires Democrats to win the majority, but the 27-point gap between 83% and 56% is the actual content. Passing 56% back through the 83% gate implies that a Democratic House brings articles only about 68% of the time (0.83 x 0.68 = 0.56).
Playing the Impeachment Contract
The impeachment discount is deliberate. In May 2025, House Democratic leaders talked Rep. Shri Thanedar out of forcing an impeachment resolution to the floor, with three other Democrats withdrawing as co-sponsors once leadership's wishes were clear. The reluctance was procedural as much as political. Any member can force a resolution onto the floor, but a Republican majority does not have to allow a clean up-or-down vote on impeachment. A Republican majority can move to table, the parliamentary step that kills the resolution on the spot. Hence, the recorded vote becomes a vote on whether to bury it rather than on the merits.
That puts every Democrat on the record on Republican terms, and it traps the frontline members (those holding swing or Republican-leaning seats, and who likely decide the majority) into a lose-lose scenario. Voting to table means going on record helping to kill impeachment, which invites a primary challenge from a base that wants it, while voting to advance it hands Republicans a recorded impeachment vote to run as a general-election attack in purple districts. Since neither choice is safe, the only protection leadership can offer is to keep the vote off the floor, as happened last spring.
What keeps the conditional near two-thirds (0.68) rather than near zero is base pressure that is unlikely to fade. The 56% is best read as that tug-of-war, a probable majority pulling toward a vote its own leadership has reasons to resist, not a discounted proxy for the midterms.
The other major question is whether a Democratic Senate would change the math in the House, and the answer is yes, but barely. Start with the odds of getting one, since Kalshi puts a Democratic Senate at just 45% against 55% for Republicans to hold it, on $8.3 million of volume. Even granting the flip, removal still takes 67 votes, so a narrow Democratic majority acquits just as a Republican one does.
The House has already shown it will move without the votes, impeaching into a Republican Senate in December 2019 and again in January 2021, the second time knowing the trial would run under a 50-50 Senate that still fell 10 short, at 57 to 43. Conviction odds have never gated the decision. A friendlier Senate would add only a trial Democrats control, a longer stage rather than a quick dismissal, which raises impeachment's value slightly as a posturing spectacle.
