Kalshi has this as a single question across four remaining deadlines: Will Donald Trump be impeached?
A YES on this contract settles when the US House of Representatives passes at least one article of impeachment by simple majority (218 votes). The rungs climb with time alone, from under 3.5% before January 2027 to 64% before January 2028, each later date giving the House more room to reach a vote.
Notably, this is not an impeachment AND removal contract, which would require a successful House vote followed by a two-thirds Senate conviction (67 votes), a far higher hurdle, and currently sitting at just 17% YES on a separate Kalshi contract.
Will Donald Trump be Impeached? Latest Kalshi Odds
The tempting read is that the impeachment line is just a discounted echo of the Democrats-taking-the-House market.
A Republican House won't impeach Trump, so a YES here needs Democrats to win the majority first: but the gap between those two prices is where the real signal sits.
Discount the impeachment odds against the House-control odds and what's left over is the market's own guess at something separate: how often a Democratic majority would actually bring articles of impeachment to the floor, rather than just holding the gavel and letting the idea sit there.
That implied share has grown since earlier this summer, when the same comparison pointed to a more cautious reading. Traders, in other words, haven't just gotten more confident Democrats retake the House: they've gotten more confident that a Democratic majority would follow through and act on it.
Playing the Impeachment Contract
The impeachment discount is deliberate. In May 2025, House Democratic leaders talked Rep. Shri Thanedar out of forcing an impeachment resolution to the floor, with three other Democrats withdrawing as co-sponsors once leadership's wishes were clear. The reluctance was procedural as much as political. Any member can force a resolution onto the floor, but a Republican majority does not have to allow a clean up-or-down vote on impeachment. A Republican majority can move to table, the parliamentary step that kills the resolution on the spot. Hence, the recorded vote becomes a vote on whether to bury it rather than on the merits.
That puts every Democrat on the record on Republican terms, and it traps the frontline members (those holding swing or Republican-leaning seats, and who likely decide the majority) into a lose-lose scenario. Voting to table means going on record helping to kill impeachment, which invites a primary challenge from a base that wants it, while voting to advance it hands Republicans a recorded impeachment vote to run as a general-election attack in purple districts. Since neither choice is safe, the only protection leadership can offer is to keep the vote off the floor, as happened last spring.
What keeps that conditional number climbing is base pressure that keeps finding new voices.
On July 23, Ty Cobb, who served as special counsel inside Trump's own White House during his first term, released a video through the group Free Speech For People arguing that Congress has a constitutional duty to act, saying Trump "must be impeached, removed, and convicted."
The organization says its petition on the matter has now drawn more than 1.1 million signatures. None of that moves the House math by itself, but it's the kind of pressure that helps explain why the conditional probability has drifted higher rather than settling near a discounted floor.
Does The Senate Change Anything?
The other open question is whether a Democratic Senate would shift the House math, and the answer is yes, but only slightly.
Kalshi still leans toward Republicans holding the chamber, so a flip isn't the base case to begin with. And even if Democrats got there, conviction still needs a two-thirds majority, so a narrow Democratic Senate acquits Trump just as a Republican one would.
History backs that up.
The House has already shown it will move without the votes to convict, impeaching into a Republican Senate in December 2019 and again in January 2021: the second time knowing the trial would fall short in a split chamber. Conviction odds have never been what gates the decision. A friendlier Senate mainly buys a trial Democrats control rather than a quick dismissal, which nudges impeachment's value up a touch as political theater more than as a real path to removal.
