The semifinals of the FIFA World Cup 2026 are officially set and, for the first time in tournament history since the introduction of the modern ranking system in 1992, the four top-ranked national teams in the world will face off for a spot in the grand finale.
As the world prepares for the ultimate final four, Kalshi traders are having a change of heart: England has emerged as the second favorite to lift the trophy at MetLife Stadium on July 19. Let's break down what that means for France, Spain and Argentina.
France Leads, England Surges
France has held the undisputed top spot on the trading boards since well before the opening whistle of the tournament. Their immense squad depth and lethal transition game have convinced traders, fans and analysts that they are the closest thing to a safe bet in international football.
Their 2-0 quarterfinals victory against Morocco cemented their status as the main favorite. The French not only showcased overwhelming offensive power with a wide variety of resources, but also a defensive cohesion that has yet to concede a knock-out goal.
With Kylian Mbappe at a legendary level, and Michael Olise, Ousmane Dembele, Manu Kone and Bradley Barcola in excellent shape, the French side has reached an all-time-high implied chance of nearly 40%.
However, the most significant shift on the market has been the massive surge of the English side. Over the last 48 hours, they went from 15% of implied chances, to an all-time-high peak of 21.5%, overtaking Spain and Argentina as the definitive runner-up.
This surge can be explained by several factors. First of all, Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane have been crucial, showcasing both talent and temperament in clutch moments. They stepped up when England needed them the most, and when your biggest stars show up, the market reacts accordingly.
Then, there’s the Argentina factor.
The Champions’ Massive Decline
The reigning champions have been a wildcard for most of the tournament. After breezing through the group stage, Argentina has struggled to establish dominance in the knockout rounds, crawling through consecutive extra-time matches against heavy underdog sides like Cape Verde, Egypt and Switzerland.
They enter their highly anticipated Wednesday semifinal against England as clear market underdogs. Scaloni’s side has shown severe problems in the midfield, with key tactical anchors like Enzo Fernández, Rodrigo De Paul, and Alexis Mac Allister having a disappointing World Cup so far. Furthermore, the sparse contributions from attackers Lautaro Martinez and Julian Alvarez have caused the decline of Argentina’s Yes contracts.
The South American side appears in fourth place after holding the runner-up position up until late June. Of course, with Lionel Messi and elite center backs like Lisandro Martinez and Cristian Romero, you just can't completely write Argentina off.
What About Spain?
While Spain’s Tiki-taka 2.0 style might not be the most exciting to watch, Luis de la Fuente’s side has been consistent throughout the World Cup, eliminating heavyweights like Portugal and Belgium.
What sets them back on the trading board is the immediate roadblock on their path to the grand finale. On Tuesday, they will face France in one of the most unpredictable matches of the tournament. While Mbappe’s team trades as the clear favorite to advance, the odds don't fully reflect the tactical complexities of that clash.
An important detail to keep in mind is that Spain is the only team in the world that has defeated the current French side on multiple occasions, including a historic 5-4 in last year’s Nations League. The lingering doubt is if they can repeat that massive achievement.
Whether the tournament concludes with France validating its position as a historic powerhouse, England capturing its first global title since 1966, Spain asserting tactical hegemony, or Messi securing a legendary back-to-back coronation, the next 180 minutes of football will permanently rewrite the history of the game.
