The All-Star break begins with a bang as the 2026 Home Run Derby is upon us.
However, this year the format has changed: the clock is gone, and now every swing matters at Citizens Bank Ballpark.
This format change is primed to change how we predict the outcomes of the Home Run Derby, and one of the best places to do that is on Kalshi.
Let's dive into the bevy of markets available to trade on in my 2026 MLB Home Run Derby Picks.
MLB Home Run Derby Prediction
As the full field for the 2026 Home Run Derby was finalized this past Saturday, a clear favorite emerged.
One of the hometown favorites, Kyle Schwarber, is trading around 22 cents on Kalshi.
It's easy to see why the market has anointed Schwarber the favorite, as not only is he in his own home park, but he is the prototype for success in this new format. He leads the majors in homers and ranks in the 96th percentile among qualified hitters in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and bat speed.
However, Junior Caminero has seen market support over the past few days, as he's one of the few competitors whose price has increased since the field was set.
Caminero was the runner-up in last year's Home Run Derby and is set to thrive in this new format. He enters this competition on a heater, having homered in 11 of his last 15 games.
The hot streak is no fluke, as he ranks in the 100th percentile in bat speed and is tied atop the field lead in Dinger Score.
Junior Caminero is the bat to buy tonight.
MLB Home Run Derby Round 1 Leader Prediction
As I alluded to, the new format is now swing-based, rather than time-based.
Round 1 grants each competitor 20 swings, with the opportunity to continue swinging if they homer on the final swing.
The first round will be telling, as many factors could play into a hitter's success. Discipline, familiarity with their respective pitcher, managing nerves, and fatigue.
Many of those factors are largely intangible, and, combined with the fixed number of swings, they raise the variance in outcomes. The market shows that after Schwarber, first-round success is tough to predict.
Caminero and Munetaka Murakami are the second tier in this market, separated by just three cents. After that, Bryce Harper, Jac Caglianone, Ben Rice, and Jordan Walker are all trading above 10 cents.
This is the first market where lower-priced options likely hold more value than the favorite.
The bats with the most value in this market are Munetaka Murakami and Jordan Walker.
MLB Home Run Derby Longest HR Prediction
The movement in this market is very telling and can lead you to value its derivatives.
Citizens Bank Park is known as a good hitter's park, ranking 10th in park factors over the past three seasons and boosting homers to both the left and right fields by 22%.
The park plays to pull hitters, and we have seen them hit some long ones. The longest estimated in the park was hit by Ryan Howard in 2007, a 505-foot bomb off Orlando Hernandez.
However, that was before the Statcast era. Since 2015, the top two longest verified homers have been 474 feet by Frenchy Cordero and 466 feet by Bryce Harper.
Lastly, the weather tonight will not boost homers much. A projected temperature of 77 degrees and a slight wind out to left center will not provide a massive advantage.
Another market that further displays the fade in home run distance is the number of 500-foot homers on Kalshi. Currently, the price of No on one or more home runs of 500 feet is trading at 70 cents. Given the history and conditions, that price may be worth it if you have the bankroll to back it.
Trading No on a 490-plus foot home run on Kalshi at 50 cents may be my favorite angle of the night.
