Alaves vs Girona Predictions, Picks | La Liga Match Preview
Visionhaus/Getty. Pictured: Girona player kicks the ball.
Alavés vs Girona Odds
| Alavés Odds | +280 |
| Girona Odds | +100 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -125 / +100 |
La Liga soccer returns this weekend for match 35, which kicks off on Friday with Girona and Alavés at the Mendizorrotza.
The home side comes into this fixture in 11th in the league table, pushing for a top 10 finish in the Spanish top flight for the first time since the 2016-17 campaign.
Meanwhile, the visitors clinched a Champions League place next season after the win over Barcelona last week.
This should be a great matchup between solid squads, and I believe there is great betting value to start off the weekend with a winning ticket.
Here's how I'm betting Alavés vs Girona.
Alavés
There is no question that Luis García has done an outstanding job as manager of Alavés this season. This club was playing in the Segunda last season, and now the team is in a good spot to finish in the top half.
One of the keys to this strong campaign has been the form at home. Only five teams have more league wins than Alaves’ eight victories.
García’s team has won three of the last four at the Mendizorrotza, which includes defeating Atlético Madrid 2-0.
Another impressive feature of the season is that Alavés are comfortably safe from relegation without a dominant goalscorer. The team’s leading scorer has eight league goals, which shows how strong the club is defensively.
Girona
Outside of Bayern Leverkusen, Girona are the next-best story in European soccer this season. The club has clinched a top four finish in La Liga to earn a place in the Champions League.
However, there could be some complications with their bid to play in the UCL. The club is owned by the City Group, which also controls Manchester City.
The UEFA Champions League regulations state that only one team can be admitted under these circumstances, which is decided by the club that finishes the highest in its domestic league.
It remains to be seen how this plays out, but you can’t take away the special season this has been for Girona.
Alavés vs Girona
Prediction
I like to bet the home teams on Friday nights in Spain, but I don’t like fading Girona against the lesser opposition. So, my attention is set on the total in a game where I’m not expecting many goals.
With that said, my best bet is for the total to fall under 2.5 goals at +105, which I would play down to -120.
If you start first with Alavés, this has been a profitable bet in home games. This same play would have cashed in 13-of-17 (76%) home fixtures.
The percentage gets even better against the top opposition in La Liga. At home against top 10 sides, only one of seven matches has finished with at least three goals.
One of the reasons behind this has been the strong defensive numbers. Only Real Madrid and Cádiz allow fewer than Alavés’ 0.89 expected goals per match, according to fbref.com.
Meanwhile, these same trends have happened recently on the road for Girona. The last four trips to bottom 10 clubs have all ended with less than 2.5 goals.
Another key to this play is a key missing player. Alavés’ leading scorer Samuel Omorodion is suspended, which is a huge knock for a team that lacks many goal threats.
Even if the visitors are at full strength, I could see a letdown after the victory over Barcelona, especially against a tough defense.
It may not be the entertaining side to be on to start the weekend, but I’ll take the under in this one in Spain.
Pick: Under 2.5 (+100)
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