Arsenal vs Aston Villa EPL Betting Preview: Updated Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction
James Williamson – AMA/Getty Images. Pictured: Arsenal standout Gabriel Martinelli.
Arsenal vs. Aston Villa Odds
|Aston Villa Odds||+600|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-140 / +100)|
|Day | Time||Wednesday | 2:30 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds updated as of Wednesday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
After four matches in the Premier League season, Arsenal is the only team that remains perfect with four wins. However, this could all change Wednesday when Aston Villa visits Emirates Stadium.
The Gunners enter the midweek slate at the top of the table, with victories over Crystal Palace, Leicester City, Bournemouth and Fulham.
Meanwhile, the Villans haven’t had the same start to the campaign, picking up just one win to go with three losses.
Arsenal has dominated lesser teams at home over the last few seasons, which I don’t see that changing in this fixture.
Everything seems to be going right for manager Mikel Arteta’s side. The Gunners have scored multiple goals in all four matches, plus the defense looks solid with the addition of William Saliba.
If there was one cause for concern, it would be the health of key midfielder Thomas Partey and summer signing Oleksandr Zinchenko, who both missed out on last weekend’s victory over Fulham.
However, both injuries are not supposed to be long term, and I’m not sure Arsenal will need the duo for this match anyway.
By The Numbers
- 0.7 — Against teams that finished in the bottom half of the EPL last season, the Gunners held opponents to this average of expected goals per 90 minutes at home, according to fbref.com.
- 2nd — Only Manchester City has allowed less xG this season than Arsenal’s 2.9 among the 20 teams in the English top flight.
After the big-name additions to the squad over the summer, Villa was a team that came into the campaign with higher expectations. However, manager Steven Gerrard and the club haven’t lived up to the hype.
The struggles have put Gerrard squarely on the hot seat, which doesn’t help considering the fact the Villans have Arsenal and City up next.
Luckily for Gerrard, there are other clubs struggling right now, which could buy him some more time to steady the ship.
By The Numbers
- -3.3 — Since Gerrard became manager, Aston Villa owns a negative xGDiff away from home.
- 14th — The Villans rank at this spot in the EPL when it comes shots per match (12.25) and expected goals (4.1) this season.
Betting Analysis & Pick
When I look at this match, I am trying to back the Gunners to win outright, but the number is too large to bet the hosts on the moneyline. That said, I’m playing Arsenal to Win to Nil at +135 odds at BetMGM as my top pick.
You also could pair a win by the hosts with the total falling under 4.5 goals (-130) or 3.5 goals (+120) in a Same Game Parlay if you want a little more protection in case Villa finds the back of the net.
With this being a midweek match, pay attention to any squad rotation, but I think Arsenal will be too strong in this match no matter who plays.
The Pick: Arsenal — Win to Nil (+135)
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