Aston Villa vs. Brentford Preview & Prediction: How to Target the Total

Aston Villa vs. Brentford Odds

Aston Villa begins a new era on Sunday when they host Brentford.

Steven Gerrard was sacked after a lackluster record and as the Villans begin their search for a new manager, they have a very tricky match on Sunday against a really solid Brentford side.

Brentford held Chelsea to a 0-0 draw on Wednesday and were actually the better side in that match. The Bees are currently sitting in the top half of the table, but have struggled away from home. So, can Thomas Frank's men continue their ascendence up the table against a down on their luck Aston Villa squad?

Aston Villa

Well, Gerrard's tenure with Aston Villa is over. During his tenure, Aston Villa only averaged 1.05 xG per match, which was one of the worst marks in the Premier League over that time frame. They also had the hat trick against Fulham on Thursday.

In their past eight matches, Aston Villa has created 6.8 expected goals and the only matches (of that eight) in which they have created over one expected goal were against Chelsea and Leeds after Luis Sinisterra got a red card. Overall this season, Aston Villa is averaging 0.90 npxG per match, 16th in the Premier League. 

However, their defense has been incredibly good because they’re only allowing 1.07 npxG per match. They’ve only conceded eight big scoring chances and do an unbelievable job of protecting their penalty area. They're also third in the Premier League in box entries allowed. So, they should be able to limit Brentford's offense Sunday. 

Brentford

Offensively, Brentford has created a lot of big scoring chances, but they’re very reliant on them and are 18th in shots per 90. The Bees are also averaging less than 10 box entries per match, which is 16th in the Premier League. Looking at their past five matches, Brentford hasn’t created over 1.3 xG.

Frank's side is incredibly difficult to breakdown because they don't allow you into their box. The Bees are 10th in box entries allowed, ninth in crosses allowed into the penalty area and ninth in xThreat. So, it's going to be difficult for Aston Villa to break down a low block.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Aston Villa's matches this season are averaging just 2.05 xG, while Brentford matches are at 2.5 xG. So, we are basically asking these two offense to break down a low block, when neither have shown they are consistently capable of doing so this season.

I only have 2.25 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on Under 2.5 goals at -110 (Bet365).

The Pick: Under 2.5 goals (-110)