Atalanta vs. Sassuolo Betting Pick: Odds, Projections for Sunday’s Serie A Match (June 21)

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POOL UEFA/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Josip Ilicic

Atalanta vs. Sassuolo Odds, Pick

Atalanta odds -275 [BET NOW]
Sassuolo odds +650 [BET NOW]
Draw odds +430 [BET NOW]
Over/under 3.5 (+102/-127)
[BET NOW]
Time Sunday, 1:30 p.m. ET
TV ESPN+

Odds as of Saturday at 5 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Serie A’s best offense is in action Sunday as fourth-place Atalanta hosts 11th-place Sassuolo. Atalanta come back from the break three points clear, with a game in hand, for the final Champions League spot. Sassuolo on the other hand, sit in the middle of the table, comfortably out of the relegation battle, but too far away from a Europa League spot in the table. It will be interesting to see how motivated they will be for this match.

Atalanta

Based on expected points, Atalanta are the best team in Italy. Their current mark of 53.53 xPoints is four better than other team in Serie A. The reason for that success? Offense, and lots of it.

It’s been an insane year for Atalanta offensively, scoring the most goals per game (2.80) of any team in Europe. Expected goals show that is absolutely for real, as they’ve generated 2.61 xG per game this season. And with so much offensive firepower it’s easy to see why 60% of their matches go over 3.5 goals.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


To go along with all that offensive firepower, they’ve also been solid defensively, only allowing 1.10 xG per game. Their defensive numbers get even better when you take into account that they’re allowing only 0.88 xG per game.

Let’s hope the break doesn’t cool off their red-hot attack as three points would solidify their fourth-place position.

Sassuolo

It has been a fairly average season for Sassuolo to this point. Sitting seven points clear of the relegation zone, they have pretty much secured another season in Serie A. It’s been a tale of two stories for Sassuolo between the home and away performances based on expected goals, though:

Given how bad they’ve been on the road, its tough to see how Sassuolo will be able to slow down Atalanta’s high-powered attack.

Previous Meeting

Sassuolo was thrashed by Atalanta, 4-1, in the reverse fixture back in September. Atalanta scored four goals inside the first 35 minutes of the game and went on cruise control for the rest of the match. The expected goals report showed Atalanta deserved the victory.

Projections, Betting Pick

I don’t see this game going any other way than a Atalanta blowout win. Based on my model, I have Atalanta as a bigger favorite than the current line on DraftKings:

  • Atalanta projected odds: -351 (77.80% win probability)
  • Sassuolo projected odds: +855 (10.47% win probability)
  • Draw projected odds: +753 (11.73% win probability)
  • Atalanta projected xG: 3.12
  • Sassuolo projected xG: 0.91

Like all other Atalanta games, I see this being a high-scoring affair with Atalanta winning by multiple goals. Therefore, I am going to back Atalanta -1.5 and Over 3.5 goals.

PICKS: Atalanta -1.5 (-104), Over 3.5 goals (+104)
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