Athletic Bilbao vs Celta Vigo Prediction | Friday La Liga Picks
Quality Sport Images/Getty. Pictured: Iago Aspas.
Athletic Bilbao vs Celta Vigo Odds
| Athletic Bilbao Odds | -154 |
| Celta Vigo Odds | +425 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -125 / +100 |
To open match week 13 in La Liga, Athletic Bilbao host Celta Vigo on Friday night at San Mamés on ESPN+.
The Basque club has gotten off to a solid start this season, entering this match in fifth in the league table with 21 points.
Meanwhile, the opposite can be said about Vigo, who are in the relegation zone with just one win after 12 matches.
Both teams should be pushing for a result, and I believe we could get goals to kick off the weekend in the Spanish top flight. Here is my Athletic Bilbao vs Celta Vigo prediction.
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Athletic Bilbao
After a season that ended without European qualification, Athletic Club are looking to get back into Europe with this strong start.
Manager Ernesto Valverde’s side has particularly been good at home. The Basque club only trails Real Madrid and Barcelona in xGDiff at home, according to fbref.com, with a mark of +5.7.
Another key to this hot start has been the play of the attacking duo of Iñaki Williams and Gorka Guruzeta. The two have combined for nine league goals and three assists.
Once you add that attack with a strong goalkeeper like Unai Simón, this should be a club competing for trophies.
Celta de Vigo
On the surface, everything seems to be going wrong for manager Rafael Benítez. His new club is struggling in the relegation zone and failing to pick up results.
However, Celta’s metrics do paint a different picture. If you sorted the league table by xGDiff, Benítez’s team would be in the top 10.
Benítez also has to be pleased with the production he is getting from veteran star Iago Aspas. The 36-year-old leads the team in assists with three.
If the team can continue to put together strong performances, the results will start to turn. Will Benítez be given enough time to see the change?
Athletic Bilbao vs Celta Vigo
Prediction
When I look at this game, multiple data points lead me to believe there should be goals in this match.
So, my best bet is for the total to fly over 2.5 at -125 via bet365, which I would play to -140. I also don’t hate a look at both teams to score either.
Starting first with the host, Athletic Club have played in some high-event fixtures recently. Over the last six games, this same play would have cashed in five matches.
This has been a stretch where Valverde’s side has given up an average of 2.6 big chances and 1.367 xG per 90 minutes.
Meanwhile, Athletic’s home games have also featured goals, with five of six finishing with at least three or more.
As for the visitors, Celta’s defense has struggled on the road. The club has allowed over 1.52 xG away from home.
This is the same side that has a goalkeeper that is in the bottom six in post-shot xG minus goals allowed.
To sum it up, this bet has won more than it has lost in Vigo’s road matches, and both teams have scored in 4-of-5 road trips.
I believe this all continues in a high-scoring affair to kick off the weekend in Spain.
Pick: Over 2.5 (-125, bet to -140)
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