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Bayern Munich vs. Inter Milan Preview & Prediction: Conditions Call For Slow Affair

Bayern Munich vs. Inter Milan Preview & Prediction: Conditions Call For Slow Affair article feature image
Credit:

DeFodi Images/Getty. Pictured: Julian Nagelsmann.

  • Bayern Munich and Inter Milan will play a dead rubber on Tuesday in the Champions League.
  • How will each team approach the fixture, and how should you bet it?
  • Read on for Anthony Dabbundo's analysis below.

Bayern Munich vs. Inter Milan Odds

Bayern Odds -250
Inter Odds +550
Draw +410
Over/Under 3.5 (-102 / -122)
Day | Time Tuesday | 4 p.m. ET
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Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Champions League Group C was the group of death in this year’s group stage once Bayern Munich, Barcelona and Inter Milan were paired together.

One of these European giants would go home, and most expected it to come down to the final day. Instead, Bayern won all five of their matches by multiple goals, Inter beat Barca 1-0 at home and tied them 3-3 away and the Spanish side is out of the Champions League before a ball is kicked on the final match day.

Bayern have already won the group, Inter Milan have clinched second place and there’s nothing but pride to play for on Tuesday when the two sides play.

These matches can be difficult to handicap — especially with the World Cup looming so close for a lot of the top players at both clubs. Will managers want to risk them when domestic league matches are a bigger priority? National team managers are also looming in the background, asking for their key players to not be overworked in the next two weeks prior to Qatar.

Let’s dive into this match.

Bayern Munich Have Lineup Questions

Bayern are dealing with a fair share of injuries at the moment as they will be without Thomas Muller, Manuel Neuer, Leroy Sané and Lucas Hernandez are all out. We’re likely to see Eric-Maxim Choupo-Moting leading the line once again for the Bavarians.

The question is what Nagelsmann does with his midfield. It seems like a good time to give one or both of Leon Goretzka and Joshua Kimmich a match off and that will lessen the attacking thrust that comes from that unit in normal matches. Bayern’s system is designed under Nagelsmann to get extra shot production from their midfield duo but Marcel Sabitzer would be a clear downgrade there.

They also play a super high line under Nagelsmann but there’s a legitimate question as to how much Inter can take advantage of that, especially now that Romelu Lukaku is out. Edin Dzeko will start for Inter and he doesn’t have the pace to trouble Bayern’s back line in any way at his advanced age.

The Bayern defense has been maligned early in the season because the team kept dropping points in the Bundesliga. But, there’s nothing structurally wrong with it. Bayern are still first in xGA and shots allowed in the German top flight. They allow the fewest box entries and progressive passes per match too.

While it is a downgrade in the goal with Sven Ulreich stepping in for Neuer, I don’t see a ton of trouble for Bayern’s defense with Inter potentially resting multiple starters. Bayern only conceded 0.5 xGA last week at Barcelona, their best defensive performance of the season.

Inter Milan Likely to Approach Fixture Conservatively

Inter finally have the right goalkeeper in the net for them and their results have improved because of it. Samir Handanović had been Inter’s first choice keeper coming into the season and the defense wasn’t getting enough shot-stopping from him. The xGA numbers remained solid early in the year and teams were shooting ridiculously well against them.

Inter have won four consecutive matches now though and the defense has tightened up. You can’t compare Bayern to Salernitana, Sampdoria, Fiorentina or Vikortia Plzen, but Inter conceded just 1.7 non-penalty xG in those four matches combined.

Inter have a huge match this weekend on the road at Juventus and that fixture holds a much higher priority than this one. That means you could see a rotation of Lautaro Martinez or Nico Barella, two vital players for this Inter attack.

Dating back to the spring, Inter have tended to approach these matches against fellow big European clubs pretty conservatively under Simon Inzaghi. In four games against Liverpool and Real Madrid last year, the matches totaled six goals in all.
We saw against Bayern and Barca in the first meeting that Inter was once again taking a more passive approach to let the opponent have the ball in non-dangerous areas. Just three total goals were scored in those two games.
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Betting Analysis & Pick

Both teams have injuries to some key attacking players, a more important league game this weekend and no incentive to run up the score or take huge risks.

I’d have bet the under at 3.5 if there were real stakes on this match because both defenses are trending upward in the last three or four weeks. Now that there could be very different teams on the pitch in Germany, I like the under even more.

My projections (without accounting for injuries) would make this total at 3.2. You can shave a few ticks off of that with Lukaku, Sane and Muller out with potential midfield rotation. The market tends to overreact to injuries and rotation and that’s why I’m grabbing under the 3.5 at -125 or better now.

The Pick: Under 3.5 (-122)

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