Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. Borussia Dortmund Odds, Picks, Prediction: Back Foals to Get Bundesliga Result (Sept. 25)
Photo by Christian Verheyen/Borussia Moenchengladbach via Getty Images. Pictured: Alassane Plea.
Gladbach vs. Dortmund Odds
|Over/Under||3.5 (-110 / -110)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||ESPN+|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.|
The biggest Bundesliga match of the weekend comes Saturday when Borussia Dortmund travels to Borussia Park to take on Borussia Mönchengladbach. New Dortmund manager Marco Rose is making his return to Gladbach to face his old team for the first time since joining Black and Yellows in the offseason.
Gladbach sits in 16th in the German top flight after turbulent start under new manager Adi Hütter, while Erling Haaland and Dortmund have played in tons of high-scoring and back-and-forth games to begin the new year. The Black and Yellows have 17 goals through five matches — seven coming from Haaland — and will cause a ton of issues for Gladbach’s porous defense.
That said though, Dortmund is running a bit hot in front of goal and benefited from some bad opposition goalkeeping, so this is an excellent buy low spot on the host Foals against their former leader.
Great Start Seems Like Ages Ago for Gladbach
Since their season-opening home draw against Bayern Munich, the Foals have been terrible. A 4-0 loss to Bayern Leverkusen; 2-1 defeat to Union Berlin; and, 1-0 loss at Augsburg have pushed Gladbach into the relegation zone.
Their performances haven’t been nearly as bad, even though the Foals only have a win against Arminia Bielefeld to date. Gladbach is 10th in xG difference despite playing the league’s toughest schedule thus far. They’ve played the Bavarians tighter than anyone else, as well as even with Leverkusen and Union away, based on the quality of the chances created.
With Gladbach, it’s been more a run of bad variance and injuries than poor performances. They’ve only scored five goals from 8.6 xG and injuries in attack to Marcus Thuram and defense to Stefan Lainer haven’t helped Hütter’s side. Jonas Hoffman has only played about half of Gladbach’s minutes and striker Breel Embolo has barely seen the field since recovering from injury.
Embolo and Hoffman should be available in this game, and their ability to play direct and on the counterattack is the perfect antidote to breaking through Dortmund’s leaky defense.
Can Haaland, Dortmund Maintain Sizzling Form?
Across the board, Dortmund games have been much higher scoring than they should be given the quality of chances created and allowed. Seventeen goals from 11.2 xG is a hot start. And even though Haaland is seen as a plus finisher, he has seven goals from 4.6 xG and won’t finish 52% above his xG because no one runs that exceptional forever.
The Black and Yellows have also conceded 11 goals from 7.4 xGA, which is net unlucky, but those aren’t particularly good underlying numbers. Playing average league offenses like Leverkusen, Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt, plus conceding more nearly 1.5 xGA per game is a concerning trend.
When they went away to Beşiktaş in the Champions League, they also conceded three big scoring chances and were fortunate to only concede one late goal in that game.
Freiburg and Hoffenheim exposed weaknesses in transition for this Dortmund team, especially up the wings of the pitch and that’s exactly where Gladbach exploited weaknesses against Bayern on opening day. As good as Haaland is and Dortmund certainly have more attacking talent, the visitors will be without Gio Reyna, Emre Can and Julian Brandt.
Betting Analysis & Picks
My projections make Dortmund +115 to win, which is much lower than the current market. The Black and Yellows opened -135 on the moneyline and dipped slightly down to their current -125 number. I make Gladbach at -115 to get a point and will take anything +100 or better at +0.5 for my pick.
Since this projects to be a high-scoring affair with a total set at 3.5 goals, I don’t hate the idea of sprinkling a little on the Gladbach ML at +250 or better either. The Foals had high profile wins against Bayern, Dortmund and RB Leipzig at home last season and nearly defeated Bayern to begin this season.
Gladbach should give Dortmund fits with their direct and quick-strike attack, which should keep this game closer than the line indicates.
With multiple players potentially coming back for Gladbach and this being a big home spot, the Foals are undervalued here.
Pick: Gladbach +0.5 (+100 or better)