Bournemouth vs Brighton Odds, Predictions, Picks | Premier League Match Preview
(Photo by Mike Hewitt/Getty Images). Pictured: Danny Welbeck.
Bournemouth vs Brighton Odds
| Bournemouth Odds | +120 |
| Brighton Odds | +195 |
| Draw | +270 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -205 / +170 |
If there's an example of how the Premier League has changed in the last few years — or how money has changed the Premier League — it's these two south-coast clubs' managerial histories in the top flight.
Bournemouth first got promoted in 2015 under Eddie Howe, who kept them in the first division for five years. After the Cherries went back down, it was Scott Parker who got them out of the Championship, and after Parker was sacked at the beginning of last season, it was Gary O'Neil who kept them above the relegation zone. However, last June, Bournemouth parted ways with O'Neil and appointed the Spaniard Andoni Iraola, the first manager in club history to not be from the British Isles.
For Brighton, it was an Irishman, Chris Hughton, who got the club back into the top level of the English pyramid in 2017 after over 30 years away. Then Graham Potter made them a consistent midtable side, but after he departed for the Chelsea vacancy midway through last season, the Seagulls' board turned to Roberto De Zerbi, who was born just south of the Alps in Italy.
There's never been a greater foreign influence on the touchlines of the Premier League, a development that emerged the same time as the league signed off on massive TV deals. Clubs like Brighton and Bournemouth, who aren't usually qualifying for European competitions, being able to bring in some of the brightest coaching talents from other high-reputation countries is a testament to that.
Read on for my Bournemouth vs Brighton pick and prediction and Premier League match preview.
Bournemouth
While on the topic of nationality and how that relates to Premier League managers, it should be noted Iraola is far from the typical Spanish coach. Compared to his Basque counterparts — Pep Guardiola, Mikel Arteta and Unai Emery — in England, there is a distinct difference in style. You'd think Iraola would've player or coached in Germany at some point, given how much he prioritizes the pressing and counter-pressing aspects of his game model, but that is not the case.
Bournemouth have more or less been vindicated when it came to the aforementioned decision of replacing O'Neil with Iraola over the summer, as they currently sit in 10th and are coming off a 1-0 win at Molineux against O'Neil's Wolves side. It seems unlikely the Cherries can progress any further up the table in the coming years under Iraola, as their record against the top-half has been among the worst in the league. As I've described before, that's because their success is so predicated on forcing opponents into mistakes, and at a certain point, they just don't have the player quality and athleticism to do so. If they can evolve their in-possession principles in settled play to not be so direct and frenetic, they can raise their ceiling, but for now this is a transition- and high turnover-reliant team.
Brighton
After a strong start to life in England — finishing sixth and earning Brighton a place in a continental competition for the first time in club history last season — the second time around has not gone quite as well for De Zerbi. This has less to do with the sales of Alexis Mac Allister and Moises Caicedo in the summer, and more due to injuries and the rest of the league beginning to understand how to play against Brighton. The Italian's first-choice wing pairing of Kaoru Mitoma and Solly March has been sidelined for much of the year, and other key cogs in the machine like Evan Ferguson, Billy Gilmour and Pervis Estupinan have missed extended periods of time. Additionally, the press-baiting, tempo-fluctuating in-possession approach De Zerbi champions is no longer as foreign to opponents as it was 12 months ago.
Regardless, Brighton are still one of the better teams in the league, even on a poor run of form, which was capped off by a 4-0 loss at home against Manchester City on Thursday. In terms of attacking play, the Seagulls are up there with City, Aston Villa and Tottenham, with every player on the pitch demonstrating a superb understanding of angles and space, and there's perhaps no side better than Brighton when it comes to the intersection of technical ability and tactics. Defensively, it's a bit of a different story. That's especially true in transitions, as Brighton's rest defense, combined with the ways and times they lose the ball, offers up too much opportunity for opponents to hit them on the break. De Zerbi has also thrown some strange man-marking responsibilities into both his press and defensive block at points, which have also been easily exploitable.
Bournemouth vs Brighton
Prediction
This contest should play out very similarly to Brighton's 3-1 win over Bournemouth at the Amex in September. The game dynamics are favorable to both outfits, with the Seagulls getting an opponent that dares to press their intricate buildup, and the Cherries facing a side that believes they can play through their high press. Like the first encounter, this is going to lead to somewhat of a stalemate.
While both sides have the quality to win, I like the value on betting a draw at just under +300 at a 25% implied probability, a line which has dropped too much from where it opened (+230).
Pick: Draw (+270)
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