Bournemouth vs. Leicester City Betting Preview: Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction (Saturday, Oct. 8)

Bournemouth vs. Leicester City Odds

Bournemouth welcomes Leicester City to the south coast on Saturday in a match between two sides in the bottom half of the Premier League table.

The Cherries have improved since the change of manager, entering the game on a four-match unbeaten run to move up to 13th.

Meanwhile, it has been a terrible start to the campaign for the Foxes, who find themselves in the relegation zone with just one win.

For any newly-promoted club, getting results at home is very important in the bid for survival. Do the hosts have the value in this fixture? Let's break down both sides.

Bournemouth Protects Home

Our attention for this match is on the field, but most of the headlines this week surrounding Bournemouth have been the news of American billionaire and Las Vegas Golden Knights owner Bill Foley’s bid to buy the club.

If the deal goes through, it will be interesting to see how much money he injects into the team, which may depend on where the Cherries are in the league table by the January transfer window.

Manager Gary O’Neil is hopeful he has done enough to keep his job under the new owner, especially with him leading the side to six points through four games.

Bournemouth has particularly been tough to beat at the Vitality Stadium, with the only loss coming to league-leading Arsenal.

Leicester City's Defense Facing Pressure

After the terrible start to this campaign, manager Brendan Rodgers likely has the hottest seat in all of the EPL, but his team was able to pick up the first victory of the season over Nottingham Forest in the last game.

The main issue again is the leaky defense, which ranks last in goals allowed (22) and 19th in big scoring chances allowed (24), according to fbref.com.

It won’t help that key defensive midfielder Wilfred Ndidi is out for this match due to injury, which puts even more pressure on James Maddison to carry the team.

For the most part, the English playmaker hasn’t disappointed, leading the Foxes in goals with five to go along with a pair of assists.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

There are not going to be many matches this season where I’m wanting to back Bournemouth, but this is going to be one of those rare opportunities. With that said, my best bet is to play the Cherries on the Asian Handicap line, getting a +0.25 spread at -105 odds at DraftKings.

For starters, Leicester is a team that does not travel well. On the road this season, the Foxes own a -2.9 xGDiff and have allowed a league-high 17 goals and 15 big scoring chances.

Another key part of this match will be set pieces, where Rodgers’ team has struggled the last two campaigns. In the 2021-22 season, the club was tied with Leeds United and Everton for the most goals allowed from set pieces and only Forest has allowed more so far this year.

Meanwhile, goalkeeper Danny Ward is having one of the worst seasons for a goalie in recent history, holding a -5.3 post-shot xG minus goals allowed mark. When you add it all up, this is not a team I want to get behind as a road favorite.

Bournemouth has plenty of struggles of its own, but O’Neil does have his team playing as an organized unit that I feel will frustrate the Foxes. I’ll take my shot with the home underdog.

The Pick: Bournemouth +0.25 (-105)