Brentford vs Bournemouth Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Prediction

Bournemouth's tumble down the Premier League table after an excellent start has commenced with four consecutive league defeats. The Cherries head north to London to take on a surging Brentford team that is fresh off of a home upset win against Liverpool in the league last week.

Brentford don't often find themselves as a -165 three-way moneyline favorite in the Premier League, but it shows the improved market respect for them in the last month as they maintain ninth place in the league. The Bees were 16th in the market power ratings entering the season — but much like last year — the market has proved too low on Thomas Frank's side.

As good as Brentford have been as an underdog since joining the Premier League, asking them to get margin in a matchup like this is a different challenge. Brentford are excellent in transition on set pieces, but they may struggle to play through tight spaces and break down a defensive low block with a lot of numbers behind the ball.

Brentford Match Up Poorly When Given the Ball

As much as Brentford excel in transition and are able to create a handful of big scoring chances, they're not nearly as good at breaking down more defensive teams. They lack the elite passing quality and settled possession dominance to produce the chances.

Brentford are 15th in penalty area touches, 17th in progressive passes and dribbles and 17th in total shots per match. That's a troubling profile for a team that is a big home favorite.

The Bees are also an elite set piece outfit — only Spurs average more xG per set piece — but that's one area where Bournemouth are strong defensively. The Cherries are eighth in xG per set piece allowed.

Brentford are expected to have Ivan Toney back for this match and fit, but questions remain about the stylistic matchup. When these two teams met earlier this year, they settled for a goalless draw. There was just 1.3 xG created in total and Brentford had 58% of the ball but just 13 total shots with only four on target.

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Bournemouth Must Use Strengths to Their Advantage

Six teams have scored fewer goals than Bournemouth this season, but that's entirely a matter of finishing variance. Based on xG and my own ratings, Bournemouth are clearly the worst attack in the Premier League. They're dead last in shots, 20th in box touches and 19th in progressive passes per match.

The Cherries have two things they do well from an attacking perceptive. They create a ton of chances from set pieces and crosses. They've produced plenty from set pieces this year, but will struggle to do so against Brentford, given that the Bees are fourth in xG per set piece allowed.

If you take away set pieces, there's not much else for the Bournemouth attack to exploit in Brentford. The two main vehicles of moving the ball forward this season have been Adam Smith and Marcus Tavernier. Smith leads Bournemouth in passes completed and crosses completed into the penalty area, and he's been suspended for this match.

Tavernier is the Cherries' leader in shot creating actions and he's also been ruled out for this match. Behind him, you'd expect Junior Stanislas to potentially step up in a ball progression role, but he's also injured for Saturday.

Kieffer Moore and Dominic Solanke have an ability to score a goal from nothing because of their aerial ability, but I'm not expecting Bournemouth to have much of anything in attack in this match.

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Brentford vs. Bournemouth Pick

The market opened this total well above 2.5 based on juice but it has come down closer to a flat 2.5 in the last week. A lack of quality attackers available for Bournemouth means that Brentford may only need one goal to win this match.

Brentford may have just scored two against West Ham United and three against Liverpool, but the Bees have a much different challenge as the expected possession-dominant side on Saturday.

Unless the Bees continue to dominate set pieces, it's hard to see this match getting to three total goals. I'd bet the under 2.5 at -100 or better. This isn't much of a projection edge based on my numbers — I project 2.53 goals — but the stylistic matchup suggests that we won't see a free-flowing Brentford in this spot.

Pick: Under 2.5 (-100 or better)