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Brentford vs. Wolves Preview & Pick: Bees Will Buzz on Saturday

Brentford vs. Wolves Preview & Pick: Bees Will Buzz on Saturday article feature image
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Photo by Mike Hewitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Ivan Toney.

  • Brentford and Wolves square off in a Premier League showdown on Saturday morning.
  • Who will be able to secure a result.
  • Nicholas Hennion has your best bet and prediction.

Brentford vs. Wolves Odds

Brentford Odds +115
Wolves Odds +225
Draw +250
Over/Under 2.5 (-110 / -125)
Day | Time Saturday |  10 a.m. ET
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With both teams coming off losses, Brentford and Wolverhampton Wanderers are set to meet Saturday in London.

The Bees were raced 4-0 by Aston Villa last week in the Midlands while Wolves dropped all three points in another 4-0 defeat against a resurgent Leicester City. Those results move Brentford and Wolves to 11th and 19th, respectively, in the Premier League table.

Last season, the road team won this fixture in both meetings. Include their meetings in the Championship and bettors will learn Wolves is 6-4-2 (W-L-D) in the past 12 meetings.

Brentford Living At Home

So far in this campaign, Brentford have continued their trend of playing well at home.

Through six fixtures at the Brentford Community Stadium, manager Thomas Frank’s side is 3-1-2 with a +3.17 xGOT differential and a +6 big scoring chances differential. That success is largely being driven by Brentford’s attack, which has generated 1.77 xGOT per 90 minutes in those six fixtures.

Plus, Brentford have experienced great success against average to bottom-tier clubs at home. In three fixtures against Brighton & Hove Albion, Leeds United and Everton, Brentford have created 2.36 xGOT per 90 minutes and have a +1.09 xGOT differential per 90 minutes.

That said, Brentford could use some defensive improvement at home. They enter this match a negative regression candidate on the defensive end – six goals on 7.42 xGOT and 11 big scoring chances – and have allowed all three of those aforementioned clubs to create more than one xGOT.

Wolves Poor Away From The Molineux

Whereas Brentford have excelled at home, Wolves have proven to be one of the worst Premier League clubs away from home.

Through six road fixtures, they have a -3.12 xGOT differential and have created only 0.73 xGOT per 90 minutes offensively.

Even if you give Wolves the benefit of the doubt and take into account road fixtures against Crystal Palace, West Ham United, Bournemouth and Leeds United, they still have a -0.04 xGOT differential per 90 minutes and have created only 0.92 xGOT per 90 minutes.

In good news for Wolves, they arrive at this fixture a positive regression candidate. In those six road fixtures, Wolves have a -8 goal differential against that -3.12 xGOT differential and have scored only two goals on 4.4 xGOT.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Personally, I love Brentford as a short home favorite.

Despite going 1-1-0 against Wolves last season, Brentford had a +0.98 xGOT differential per 90 minutes and were undone at home by two Wolves goals that were worth a combined 0.43 xGOT, per fotmob.com.

Plus, even if you throw out all of the underlying metrics, these two sides have posted opposite results at their respective venues. In 16 home fixtures against non-big six clubs, Brentford are 8-6-2 but have won nine of 16 by at least 0.5 xG.

On the flip-side, Wolves are 6-8-3 in their last 17 road fixtures against the same group. Additionally, they have lost nine of those 17 fixtures by at least 0.5 xG, per fbref.com.

Based on those trends, take Brentford up to +105 on the three-way moneyline.

The Pick: Brentford ML (+115) 

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