Brighton & Hove Albion vs Man United Odds, Pick | Premier League Preview
Michael Regan/Getty Images. Pictured: Brighton & Hove Albion standout Danny Welbeck and his teammates celebrate a goal against Manchester United.
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Man United Odds
Man United Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-175/ +140)|
|Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)||(-177/ +135)|
|Odds via BetRivers. Get the latest soccer odds here.|
Brighton continues their ascension up the table when they host Manchester United on Thursday.
Brighton dismantled Wolves this past weekend, winning 6-0 and also resting some of their best players in the process. The Seagulls have been the most entertaining team in the Premier League under Roberto De Zerbi and narrowly lost on penalties to Manchester United in the FA Cup semifinals less than two weeks ago. They’ll be out for revenge Thursday.
Manchester United is holding onto the fourth spot in the Premier League table with both Liverpool and Brighton starting to close the gap. Erik ten Hag’s side has won the League Cup and is in the FA Cup finals, but they are in a tough spot having to play this match and then travel to London to face West Ham on Sunday. They also have been poor against top sides away from home this season, so we’ll see if they can repeat the successful defensive performance they had in that semifinal against Brighton.
De Zerbi has turned Brighton into an offensive force. Since he took over on October 1st, Brighton are averaging 2.04 xG per 90 minutes, which is the fourth-most in the Premier League during that time.
His style of play is uber-aggressive. De Zerbi demands Brighton play out of the back and when they do, they bait their opponent into pressing them high, creating space in the middle. It’s usually a 4-2-4 build up structure with the two midfielders playing very deep and the four attackers pressing up very high, which creates a ton of space once they beat the first line of the press.
The problem they ran into in the FA Cup semifinal is Manchester United didn’t take the bait, especially in the second half. United sat off, didn’t press Brighton’s centerbacks and made life very difficult, which is why Brighton only ended up creating 1.38 expected goals. However, Brighton had an xThreat of 2.36 and tilted the field on Manchester United at 60.8%, so it was a very good performance from the Seagulls in the final third.
Brighton 0 : 0 Man Utd
▪ xG: 1.38 – 0.66
▪ xThreat: 2.36 – 0.91
▪ Possession: 60.3% – 39.7%
▪ Field Tilt: 60.8% – 39.2%
▪ Def Action Height: 50.9 – 44.1 pic.twitter.com/o2d4yGUxGo
— markstats bot (@markstatsbot) April 23, 2023
Brighton are top four in the Premier League in shots per 90 minutes, box entries, final third entries and progressive passes + dribbles. This is one of the best offenses in England and they’re also a good defensive team. Brighton counter presses just as well as some of the elites in the Premier League, allowing them to sustain 90 minutes of pressure, which is big against Manchester United.
Manchester United put in a fantastic defensive performance in that FA Cup semifinal to keep Brighton from scoring. They didn’t press high and sat in their compact defensive block, doing a great job on winning the ball off Brighton in their final third.
Manchester United managed to regain possession within a 40-meter radius of Brighton's goal 10 times tonight, which is the highest number among all of Brighton's opponents this season in all competitions. All 10 possessions were registered after half-time https://t.co/u8K91mifVN
— markstats (@markrstats) April 23, 2023
While that defensive performance was impressive and ended up getting them through to the FA Cup Final, it’s important to note it was also a pretty poor offensive performance. Manchester United only created 0.66 xG, which is concerning because Manchester United has become a more direct counter attacking team when playing sides that are going to hold more possession than them. They’ve been successful playing this way, but most of that success has come at Old Trafford.
Against the Big Six (plus Newcastle) away from Old Trafford this season, Manchester United has a -10.1 xGD. Additionally, Manchester United is only at a +0.34 xGD per 90 minutes, while Brighton is at +0.74.
Additionally, Lisandro Martinez and Raphael Varane are still out, which means Victor Lindelof and Luke Shaw will be the two center backs.
Brighton vs Man United Pick
With injuries mounting that’ll hamper Manchester United’s ability to play out of the back, and given how ineffective they were as a direct transitional team in the FA Cup semifinal, there’s going to be even more pressure on the defense to have another elite performance.
The Seagulls are likely going to hold a majority of the possession again, and this could come down to how good they are at breaking down Manchester United’s low block.
Manchester United are down their best two center backs and have been extremely poor away from Old Trafford against good opponents, I love Brighton in this matchup at +106 (BetRivers).
Pick: Brighton +106
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