Bundesliga Odds, Picks, Predictions: Best Bets For Leipzig vs Monchengladbach, More

Bundesliga Odds, Picks, Predictions: Best Bets For Leipzig vs Monchengladbach, More article feature image

DeFodi Images/Getty. Pictured: Mathias Ginter

Borussia Dortmund beat RB Leipzig 2-1 at home on Friday last week to stay even with Bayern Munich at the top of the Bundesliga table. Union Berlin dropped points again as their title hopes begin to fade in the stretch run. With 11 matches to go, Bayern and Dortmund are on a collision course for their massive April 1 meeting in Munich.

Dortmund are out of the Champions League now too and they'll need to avoid a letdown this weekend in a huge rivalry matchup at Schalke in the Revierderby. That's one of the highlight matchups of the weekend, as is the Marco Rose bowl as Borussia Monchengladbach travel to take on RB Leipzig. Leipzig are in a tricky spot with Manchester City looming on Tuesday in the Champions League.

The action begins with Köln hosting Bochum on Friday and concludes with Union Berlin visiting Wolfsburg on Sunday.

Here are my three best bets in the Bundesliga this weekend:

Bundesliga Odds & Picks

RB Leipzig vs Borussia Monchengladbach

Leipzig Odds-270
Gladbach Odds+600
Over/Under2.5 (-190 / +154)
Day | TimeSaturday |  9:30 a.m. ET
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Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

On a week-to-week basis, Gladbach have pretty mediocre numbers in the Bundesliga. They sit in 10th place with a negative goal difference and average underlying numbers as well. They've struggled for consistency under Daniel Farke. The Foals like to slow down the tempo in possession and don't really press much, but it hasn't helped the defense improve to be an above average unit overall.

Gladbach are still capable of playing up against the top teams in the league, though. The Foals beat Dortmund, Leipzig and Bayern. They also drew Bayern 1-1 in the other meeting between the two clubs. Leipzig showed some transition defense cracks against Dortmund last week.

The Foals are an effective quick strike transition attack and like to immediately look to play the ball forward upon regaining possession. When the ball in behind isn't there, the Foals recycle the ball and like to slow down the possession. Leipzig don't do much high pressing or counter pressing upon losing the ball.

Gladbach should have plenty of success in transition away from home in this match, and the Foals also have the better set piece numbers at both ends of the pitch. Given that it's a tricky spot between the Dortmund defeat and the Champions League on Tuesday too, I'd bet Gladbach at +1.25 and sprinkle on the moneyline at +550 or better.

Dabbundo's Picks: Gladbach +1.25 (-110), Gladbach ML (+600)

Hertha Berlin vs Mainz 05

Hertha Odds+180
Mainz Odds+145
Over/Under2.5 (-116 / -106)
Day | TimeSaturday |  9:30 a.m. ET
How To WatchESPN+
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Mainz enter this match as one of the most in-form teams in the entire Bundesliga with four consecutive victories. They've scored 11 goals in their last four league matches against Augsburg, Leverkusen, Gladbach and most recently, Hoffenheim. Mainz are the marginally better side across the board, but this price as a small road favorite is a good sell high spot on them.

The defense conceded at least 1.5 xGA in three of those four wins and Bo Svensson's side isn't nearly as elite defensively as it was last season. The market has also gotten way too low on this Hertha defense, which hasn't been nearly as bad as the goals allowed would suggest.

Their underlying process numbers aren't bad, but they've been unlucky with opponent finishing and suffered from poor shot-stopping. We don't have much of a track record on goalkeeper Oliver Christensen, as this is his first year in the Bundesliga.

Even still, it's a good bet that he won't be as bad in the future as he has been thus far. He has the worst post-shot xG difference in all of Germany and has cost Hertha eight goals with his bad shot stopping. There's likely positive regression coming for Hertha there. Otherwise, this defense is above average in shots allowed and big scoring chances created.

Hertha's attack has major issues creating high quality chances and is often stuck shooting from long distance and settling for low quality looks. But as a home underdog against a mid-table Mainz team, Berlin are undervalued. I'd bet them at a PK at -105 or better.

Dabbundo's Pick: Hertha Berlin PK (-105 or better)

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Freiburg vs Hoffenheim

Freiburg Odds-120
Hoffenheim Odds+280
Over/Under2.5 (-128 / +106)
Day | TimeSunday |  10:30 a.m. ET
How To WatchESPN+
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Freiburg and Hoffenheim may be very far apart from one another in the Bundesliga table, but their underlying statistical profiles are more similar than you might expect. There's a ton of positive regression coming for the Hoffenheim attack, a team that hasn't won a game since Oct. 14 in Germany. They rank seventh in xG created and are top seven in box entries, crosses completed into the box and shots per match.

Despite this, Hoffenheim have the 13th most goals in Germany and sit in 16th with seven consecutive losses in all competitions. They over-performed to finish as high as they did over the last couple seasons, but they've bottomed out in the market now with this price and spot.

Hoffenheim have also suffered from poor shot-stopping from goalkeeper Oliver Baumann. He was an average Bundesliga keeper in most past seasons, so there's no reason to expect him to continue to struggle.

One major advantage for Freiburg comes on set pieces, where they are considerably more efficient at both ends of the pitch. Freiburg have over-performed to be this high in the Bundesliga table and Hoffenheim are undervalued to get at least a point on Sunday.

This is a tricky spot for Freiburg too, sandwiched between the two legs of their Europa League tie with Juventus. I'm fading a Freiburg attack that is propped up on the most penalties awarded in Germany and buying a Hoffenheim attack low after three straight goalless showings.

Dabbundo's Pick: Hoffenheim +0.5 (-110 or better)

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