Champions League Best Bets: Chelsea-Milan, Other Group E Odds (October 11)

The Champions League returns on Tuesday for the reverse of fixtures that we saw in Matchweek 3. 

I have derived my best bets from the fixtures that will be played from Group E in the competition, including Chelsea vs. AC Milan and Dinamo Zagreb vs. RB Salzburg.

Read on for my best bets and analysis of the two matches.

Group E Champions League Best Bets

AC Milan vs. Chelsea

Milan arrives at this game with a host of injury concerns and I’ll be shocked if they keep a clean sheet.

Manager Stefano Pioli’s side will be without goalkeeper Mike Maignan as well as defenders Allesandro Florenzi, Simon Kjaer and Davide Calabria, leaving Milan particularly exposed at the back.

Although the team finds itself at home, this remains a defense that conceded 2.44 expected goals (xG) on target last week in London and have only three clean sheets in their last 10 games.

That said, I’m going to place a small bit of faith in this Milan attack to create more than it did last week. Over that same 10-game sample, Milan have created at least one xGOT in all but three games.

Just in six Serie A and UCL home games this year, Milan have never failed to score and have created 2.1 xG per 90 minutes.

For those reasons, I’ll back this prop market at -135 or better.

Pick: Both Teams to Score – Yes (-130)

Dinamo Zagreb vs. RB Salzburg

Let’s do the same market with another home underdog, shall we?

Last week in Austria, Dinamo Zagreb allowed Salzburg to have its way offensively. The hosts created 2.69 xG on target and three big scoring chances, per fotmob.com. Even if you remove the Salzburg penalty, that’s still 1.7 xGOT and two big scoring chances.

Plus, although it’s not a great sample size, this remains a Salzburg team that has yet to be kept goalless in 14 matches across all competitions this season.

All that said, Zagreb’s attack has proven somewhat okay in the Champions League. Across their first three group fixtures, the Croatian outfit has produced 1.13 xGOT per 90 minutes and have scored at least once in two of three fixtures.

Plus, last week away from home, Zagreb created 0.77 xGOT and one big scoring chance, so it wasn’t all disastrous. With home support behind Zagreb, back the “yes” side of this market at -135 or better.

Pick: Both Teams to Score – Yes (-135)