Tuesday Champions League Betting Odds, Prediction & Picks: Lazio vs. Borussia Dortmund (Oct. 20)
Lars Baron/Getty Images. Pictured: Borussia Dortmund striker Erling Haaland.
- Italian side Lazio (+285) hosts German powerhouse Borussia Dortmund (-115) in Champions League action Tuesday in Rome.
- Matt Trebby breaks down the match and gives you his top pick.
Lazio vs. Borussia Dortmund Odds
|Lazio Odds||+285 [BET NOW]|
|Borussia Dortmund Odds||-115 [BET NOW]|
|Draw Odds||+300 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||3 (+112/-137) [BET NOW]|
|Time||3 p.m. ET|
|TV||CBS All Access|
If you’re like me, the Champions League anthem is playing in your head because the tournament is back.
The world’s elite club competition features a host of mouthwatering matchups this fall, one of which features teams who had a knack for finding the back of the net last season.
Lazio and Borussia Dortmund have had opposite starts to their respective league campaigns, but let’s see what that means in terms of how to bet the match:
Lazio is due for a bit of regression from last season, when it was Juventus’ closest challenger for the Serie A title before struggling following the campaign’s summer restart.
The club benefited greatly via 15 goals from the penalty spot last season, when its xG was 7.73 goals lower from open play than its actual total. Lazio’s xGA was also 10.39 higher than the 27 it conceded from open play.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
The Eagles are off to a shaky start this season in Serie A, gaining four points from four games. Lazio didn’t register more than 1.00 xG in either of its last two league matches — a 1-1 draw against Inter and 3-0 loss to Sampdoria.
Striker Ciro Immobile did not feature against Sampdoria on Saturday due to suspension, so his potential return in the Champions League will be a big boost for a struggling Lazio attack.
Aside from a shocking defeat away to Augsburg in Matchday 2 of the Bundesliga, Dortmund has taken care of business early.
The Black and Yellow beat Hoffenheim, 1-0, on Saturday. Substitutes Erling Haaland and Marco Reus combined on the winner, with Haaland assisting his teammate on the match’s lone goal.
Haaland has 17 goals in 19 league games since joining Dortmund in January and will be fresh to lead the attack in Rome.
Dortmund will always provide attacking flair, with a plethora of quality players to pick from going forward, but the biggest positive so far has been its defense. Manager Lucien Favre’s side ranks second in the Bundesliga at 3.28 xGA through its first four matches, trailing top-of-the-league RB Leipzig.
Dortmund usually is good to score at least a goal in every game it play, so a strong backline led by veteran Mats Hummels going away from home into a place like Stadio Olimpico is a massive boost.
Lazio-Borussia Dortmund pick
Based on form, these sides are going in opposite directions. Dortmund’s biggest downfall over past years has been its defense, which is thriving. Lazio, meanwhile, are struggling all over the field.
Dortmund at the +108 moneyline are good value. The Black and Yellow is on a good run of form, and the defensive stability with its 3-4-2-1 formation under Favre could be the difference between it breaking through domestically and in European competition this season.
Haaland to score first at +370 isn’t bad value either, but I’ll just focus on the Dortmund moneyline here since it’s the clear play given the sides’ current runs of form.
Pick: Dortmund ML +108