Real Madrid vs. Inter Milan Odds, Picks, Predictions for Champions League (Tuesday, Nov. 3)

Real Madrid vs. Inter Odds

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Real Madrid and Inter Milan entered Group B of Champions League group as the favorites to advance to the knockout round of the tournament.

However, after two matches, it’s hard to imagine a worse start for either of these European giants.

Struggling to get things in order, the sides meet Tuesday in Madrid, with two points desperately needed for both teams.

Let's take a look at what's on deck in this meeting:

Real Madrid

The days of Real Madrid dominating this competition appear to be over.

Since the departure of Cristiano Ronaldo and three consecutive UCL titles, Real Madrid's form in Europe hasn’t been quite as good. Los Blancos were bounced in the Round of 16 two years in a row at this competition, with this year's edition starting off poorly as well.

Real Madrid suffered a stunning loss to Ukrainian side Shakhtar Donestk, where it nearly rescued a point in the group-stage opener. It needed two late goals to steal a point from German side Borussia Monchengladbach in last week's fixtures, which shows its performances have pretty much lined up.

Los Blancos have rolled in La Liga play, but benefitted from a pretty weak set of games. Real Madrid did dominate Barcelona a few weeks back, but its only other difficult match was a goalless draw with Real Sociedad. 

Even with Eden Hazard’s likely return, I’m not buying into this Real Madrid midfield either. When Zinedine Zidane took over and helped the club cruise to a league title in 2019-20, it was because he shored up its defensive issues. 

This is a tough team to breakdown domestically, but that hasn’t been the case in the UCL recently. Real Madrid is pressing its opponents less this year, and getting pressed more than usual, which raises some red flags about how the midfield is performing.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Inter

Unlike Real Madrid, Inter has started the season really strong, However, the results haven’t quite followed the performances.

Inter is first in non-penalty expected goal difference in Serie A, underperforming in its xG in both UCL and league play. I watched both of Inter’s two matches in this competition, and dug through the box scores following each game. Honestly, it's amazing Inter didn’t win either game. 

Two individual mistakes from Arturo Vidal led to two Gladbach goals, which resulted in the draw. Then, Inter missed some huge chances by hitting the post and crossbar in its next match, settling for a scoreless tie with Shakhtar. 

They might have walked away with ties, but Antonio Conte’s men outplayed both opponents by more than a goal in xG in both games. At the weekend, Inter tied Parma, 2-2, but won the xG by a 2.5-0.7 margin.

So while Inter have only triumphed in one match in its last six games, the club has outperformed its opponents on xG in five of those matches. 

Bottom line, there is absolutely positive regression coming for Conte’s side, and I like Inter’s wing backs to create some width issues for Real Madrid on the perimeter in this match.

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Real Madrid-Inter Picks

Real Madrid is rightly favored in this match, according to my numbers, but overvalued. I make Real Madrid a +130 favorite in this game, so I will fade the club again in this spot.

I’ll back Inter to grab at least a point and deny the host side it first UCL win.

Pick: Inter +0.5 (+102)

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