Shakhtar vs. Real Madrid Champions League Odds & Betting Pick: Take the Under as Los Blancos Look to Rebound

Shakhtar vs. Real Madrid Champions League Odds & Betting Pick: Take the Under as Los Blancos Look to Rebound article feature image
Credit:

David S. Bustamante/Soccrates/Getty Images. Pictured: Karim Benzema

Shakhtar vs. Real Madrid Odds

Shakhtar Odds +450
Real Madrid Odds -165
Draw +320
Over/Under 2.5 (-150 / +125)
Day | Time Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

In a rematch from last season’s Champions League group stage, Real Madrid travels to Ukraine to face Shakhtar Donetsk on Tuesday in a very important Group D match.

Real Madrid enters the fixture with a win over Inter Milan and the shocking defeat to newcomers FC Sheriff, while Shakhtar is winless with a draw with Inter and a loss to Sheriff.

The hosts will have confidence coming into the match as they secured wins in both legs against Los Blancos in last season’s competition. So, should we be expecting a third consecutive Shakhtar victory or will Real Madrid get sone revenge?

Shakhtar Struggling to Find Offense

Shakhtar will be playing the seventh game of its Champions League season after advancing through two qualifying rounds against Genk and Monaco.

In its domestic league, the Ukrainian side is in second through 11 matches with eight wins and a +23 goal differential.

Goals have been hard to come by for Shakhtar in the group stage matches so far as Roberto De Zerbi’s side was shutout in the first two games on 2.1 expected goals, according to fbref.com.

If you look at the four matches where xG was calculated against Monaco, Inter Milan and Sheriff, Shakhtar has averaged .975 xG and posted a -2.6 expected goals difference.

Lassina Traoré leads the team with six goals in seven matches this season, followed by Brazilian midfielder Tetê with four. Both will need to be on form if Shakhtar wants to pull off a result.

Inconsistent Play Haunting Real Madrid

Which Real Madrid team will we see in this contest? The club that scores goals for fun against teams like Alavés, Celta Vigo and Mallorca or the squad that struggles to put the ball in the net in matches with Betis, Inter Milan and Villarreal?

Manager Carlo Ancelotti’s team has been up and down this season, but Los Blancos enter the match in second in La Liga with 22 goals scored and a +12 goal difference.

Besides leading the league in goals, Real Madrid has the most expected goals (14) and goals per shot (0.16), but sit in the bottom half of the table in xG allowed at 10.4 this season.

Karim Benzema is having the best season of his career so far, scoring 10 goals to go along with seven assists in all campaigns. Vinícius Júnior has also enjoyed a great start to the year, notching five goals and two assists.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

The odds are favoring the away team in this match, listing Real Madrid as -165 favorites on the money line at DraftKings to go with a total of 2.5 shaded to the over at -155 odds.

My best bet for this match is on the Asian Handicap and playing the total to stay under three goals at -125 odds.

If you look at the four games where Real Madrid has played against stiffer competition, all but one of the matches went under the total of three goals and the one that didn’t was a push.

I highlighted Shakhtar’s struggles in front of goal so far in the group stage, and the same issues have been there against better teams as well.

In the six UCL matches and the game against Ukrainian champion Dynamo Kiev, the same bet would have cashed in four of those fixtures and pushed in two others.

I think this trend will continue for both squads, so I expect another low-scoring match when the two meet in Ukraine.

Pick: Total Under 3 Goals (-125)

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