Wolfsburg vs. Sevilla Betting Odds, Pick, Prediction: Expect Tight Affair in Champions League Clash (Sept. 29)

Wolfsburg vs. Sevilla Odds

Champions League action returns to the Volkswagen Arena for the first time since 2016 on Wednesday when Wolfsburg hosts Sevilla in the first-ever game between the sides.

Both clubs registered draws in their opening games and had to do so down a man after each had a player sent off in their respective matchups.

The Spanish side enters the contest unbeaten in all competitions so far this season, while Wolfsburg sits in third in the Bundesliga.

Group G is one of the more open groups of the competition, and these two teams will be looking to secure an all-important win.

Wolfsburg Backline Brimming with Confidence

After starting the 2021-22 campaign with four wins in five, Wolfsburg has dropped points in the last two games, including the first loss of the season at Hoffenheim (3-1) this past weekend.

Mark van Bommel’s side has played two Champions League-level teams this year in RB Leipzig and Lille, which resulted in a 1-0 victory over the German rival and a scoreless draw in France.

American defender John Brooks will have to miss this match as he was the player that picked up the red card against Lille.

Wolfsburg will hope that doesn’t disrupt what has been a strong defensive team this season, ranking third in the Bundesliga in goals conceded (5) and expected goals against (5.8), according to fbref.com.

The Wolves have leaned on the backline to post a +3.9 expected goals difference through the first six games in their domestic league, which is only behind league-leaders Bayern Munich.

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Can Sevilla Manage Success Sans En-Nesyri?

To continue its strong start to the year, Sevilla will have to do so without key striker Youssef En-Nesyri, who led the team in goals last season and has three so far this campaign.

His red card means summer signing Érik Lamela will likely lead the line, where the Argentine has three goals and an assist since joining the club.

Julen Lopetegui’s team has shown well in the advanced metrics in the young season, boasting the third-best expected goal difference in La Liga at +4.9.

The Spanish team has also been one of the better defending squads as well, leading the Spanish top flight with only two goals conceded and a .683 expected goals against per game record.

With a relatively weak schedule to open the season, it will be interesting to see how Sevilla handles the step up in competition away from home without its top striker.

Betting Analysis & Pick

The oddsmakers see these two teams as just about even, with Sevilla currently favored at +155 on the moneyline at DraftKings.

I'm setting my eyes on the total for this match as my best bet.

I’ll be playing the under at 2.5 goals (-130) in a game between two strong defensive teams that should be good enough to hold out the attackers from each team.

In the 16 combined games the two teams have played in all competitions this season, the same bet of under 2.5 has cashed in 11 of those games.

You can also look at the combined expected goals totals over the last five matches for both clubs. Wolfsburg’s fixtures have averaged a combined 2.08 xG, while Sevilla’s games have been even lower at 1.884.

When you add in the loss of top striker En-Nesyri due to suspension, this game sets up to be a very cagey affair between two evenly-matched sides in Germany on Wednesday night.

Pick: Under 2.5 Goals (-130)