Saturday Champions League Odds & Picks: Bank on Bayern Munich to Handle Business Against Chelsea

Champions League Odds: Bayern Munich vs. Chelsea

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When it comes to formalities in sports, there might not be a better example than Saturday’s match between Bayern Munich and Chelsea in Champions League play.

Bayern Munich, the Bundesliga champion, carries a 3-0 aggregate lead over Chelsea entering this confrontation at Allianz Arena in Munich. The Bavarians were brilliant in the opening fixture, cruising to the victory at Stamford Bridge. Serge Gnabry recorded two goals and Robert Lewandowski added the other, giving the visitors a practically insurmountable advantage heading into second leg of this pairing.

Chelsea enters this match fresh off a 2-1 loss against Arsenal in the FA Cup final last weekend and has to be gutted after missing out on a trophy and losing American star Christian Pulisic, standout defender Cesar Azpilicueta and veteran star Pedro to injuries. All three are out for Saturday's match.

On the other side of the pitch, Bayern Munich has had more than a month off from competitive play, with its most recent match coming back on July 4 when it earned a 4-2 triumph against Bayer Leverkusen in the DFB-Pokal finale.

According to the data at FiveThirtyEight, Bayern Munich has the second-best chance to win the Champions League title via its Soccer Power Index numbers. The Bavarians have a 94.1 overall SPI number, which is well ahead of Chelsea (86.0 points) in fifth among the teams still alive in the competition.

That same data gives Bayern Munich a 31% chance of reaching the championship and 21 percent shot at winning it all. In contrast, Chelsea has a slim-to-no chance of reaching either point, sitting at less than one percent in both categories.

Another huge component working in Bayern Munich’s favor is history. Clubs who have won by three or more goals in the first leg of a knockout match away from home have advanced every single time (that would be 92 instances to be exact), which makes this even more difficult for Chelsea in this dire scenario.

Betting Analysis

With that in mind, I am backing Bayern Munich to put this match away early and win the first half in the process. The Bavarians don’t want to give the visitors any ray of hope for a miracle comeback, which means they will likely step on the gas from the start and get ready for the next round.

I am also sprinkling a little on both teams to score goals, with the belief Bayern Munich and Chelsea will play freely and make this an entertaining showdown. Bayern Munich hasn’t been shut out since its scoreless draw against RB Leipzig way back on February 9 and Chelsea has only been blanked once in its last 15 matches across all competitions.

The Bets: Bayern Munich 1H (minus-125); Both Teams To Score – Yes (minus-163)

Bayern Munich vs. Chelsea Tale of the Tape

• Bayern Munich has scored at least six goals in its last seven Champions League contests.
• Chelsea is winless in its last seven away Champions League fixtures in the knockout round.
• There have been at least three goals in seven of Bayern Munich’s last eight Champions League matches.
• Chelsea has lost four of its last six away matches across all competitions.