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Tuesday Champions League Picks, Predictions: How to Bet Wolfsburg, Barcelona, Villarreal

Tuesday Champions League Picks, Predictions: How to Bet Wolfsburg, Barcelona, Villarreal article feature image

Max Maiwald/DeFodi Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Wolfsburg star Wout Weghorst.

  • Champions League odds have been on the move in the last few days with Barcelona and Wolfsburg becoming shorter favorites for their Tuesday matches.
  • Both those teams are in need of victories to keep pace in UCL group play.
  • Here's how we're betting the Champions League on Tuesday afternoon:

Odds are on the move on another busy Champions League slate Tuesday when the group stage begins the fourth of six matches.

Soccer analysts Anthony Dabbundo, Matthew Trebby and Jeremy Pond have uncovered their best bets on the stacked card, which come from matches featuring Chelsea, Villarreal and Barcelona across the landscape.

Check out their detailed insight and in-depth analysis, plus what kind of price they're getting on their favorite selections at BetMGM ahead of these games.

Wolfsburg vs. Salzburg

Wolfsburg Odds+135
Salzburg Odds+180
Over/Under2.5 (-145 / +105)
Day | TimeTuesday | 1:45 p.m. ET
How To WatchParamount+
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Anthony Dabbundo: Wolfsburg finally ended its winless streak at eight games in the Bundesliga with an away victory at Bayer Leverkusen this past Saturday, earning a 2-0 victory from two second-half goals.

Following a red-hot start to the season in Germany, Wolfsburg regressed hard in September and October, settling for two draws and a loss in the Champions League to go along with four consecutive defeats in the German top flight.

The market was too high on Wolfsburg to begin the season, but is now too low following a brutal run of setbacks. One major reason has been an underperformance in expected goals, where they've scored just 11 goals from 16.4 xG in Germany and have some positive regression coming.

Salzburg's attack has relied on penalties for three of its six goals in UCL play and has played way above its true talent level thus far in the group. Despite being deserved winners in the first leg at home, Salzburg is now getting too much respect in the market and Wolfsburg should be bigger favorites.

Wolfsburg still features one of the best defenses in the Bundesliga (fourth fewest xGA; second fewest shots allowed) and looked much better at home against Sevilla than it has looked in its two away matches in this UCL group.

Dabbundo's Pick: Wolfsburg — Draw No Bet (-125)

Villarreal vs. Young Boys

Villarreal Odds-200
Young Boys Odds+475
Over/Under3.5 (+125 / -175)
Day | TimeTuesday | 4 p.m. ET
How To WatchParamount+
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Matthew Trebby: Villarreal’s first match against Young Boys was a frustrating one in terms of the total. Unai Emery’s Yellow Submarine scored twice early, which doomed the under that was 100% the right call given the Spanish manager’s tactics away from home.

Young Boys held their own in that game and bounced back well from conceding twice in 16 minutes. They registered a 77th-minute goal and 2.6 expected goals, although most of that was probably thanks to Villarreal sitting back and focusing on defense.

There’s one common trend between both of these teams of late: a bunch of goals.

In 11 of Young Boys’ last 14 games, both teams have scored. The Bern-based side has struggled of late, though, having won just two of its last six games, of which it lost three of them.

Meanwhile, Villarreal has had both teams score in four of its last five games. The only outlier was a 2-0 home defeat against Valencia over the weekend.

So, I think both teams will score and I expect Villarreal to get the win. Emery is a solid manager, and while his team only has three wins this season in all competitions, it has the experience and quality to get a necessary win at home.

At BetMGM, we can get Villarreal to win and both teams to score at +175 odds. That seems like great value to me given recent trends and the Spanish side’s quality.

Trebby's Pick: Villarreal to Win & Both Teams to Score (+175)

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Dynamo Kiev vs. Barcelona

Dynamo Kiev Odds+450
Barcelona Odds-150
Over/Under2.5 (-135 / -105)
Day | TimeTuesday | 4 p.m. ET
How To WatchParamount+
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here

Jeremy Pond: These sides squared off at Camp Nou last time out, with the Spanish hosts securing a 1-0 victory against their Ukrainian foes. Barcelona dominated the xG battle, finishing with a 1.6-0.1 advantage. However, all Blaugrana could manage from that dominance was a first-half goal from Gerard Pique that stood up the rest of the way.

Barcelona is the deserved favorite again, but it seems like there are more unfit than healthy players available. Pique and Sergio Aguero headline the list of sidelined standouts, along with Ansu Fati, Pedri, Ousmane Dembele and Martin Braithwaite to name a few of the absentees.

That said, I'm backing the total to stay under 2.5 goals at -105 odds and will make it my top selection. Dynamo Kiev has yet to concede a goal on home soil, which I think is a huge mental edge for the outfit entering this crucial affair. Throw in the fact there have been two goals of less in three of Barcelona's last three games across all competitions and I like my chances.

Finally, when you factor the less-than-ideal weather forecast at game time — wind, light rain and the temperature failing to crack 50 degrees Fahrenheit —  this has all the makings of being a tightly contested matchup with quality scoring chances at a premium.

Pond's Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-105)

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