Chelsea vs. Aston Villa Betting Odds, Picks, Preview: Blues Defense Will Be Stout in EPL Match

Chelsea vs. Aston Villa Betting Odds, Picks, Preview: Blues Defense Will Be Stout in EPL Match article feature image
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Jose Breton/Pics Action/NurPhoto via Getty Images. Pictured: Jorginho

  • Chelsea hosts Aston Villa in Saturday's Premier League action (12:30 p.m. ET, NBC).
  • The Blues, who will be without American international Christian Pulisic, are north of 3-1 moneyline favorites.
  • Brett Pund explains below why he doesn't expect offensive fireworks at Stamford Bridge.

Chelsea vs. Aston Villa Odds

Chelsea Odds -320
Aston Villa Odds +950
Draw +450
Over/Under 2.5 (-125/ +105)
Day | Time Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET
How To Watch NBC | Peacock Premium
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here

Chelsea will look to continue its unbeaten start to the Premier League campaign when it hosts Aston Villa at Stamford Bridge on Saturday, where the main storyline may be the fitness of new summer signing Romelu Lukaku ahead of the match.

Beyond the news on the Belgian, you will want to keep a close eye on the team news when lineups are announced at the weekend to see if there will be any rotation before the Blues open Champions League play on Tuesday.

Villa won’t shy away from the trip to West London as they were able to take four out of a possible six points from the two matches against Chelsea last season.

This contest should be a great test of just how great Chelsea’s squad depth is in the young season with plenty quality players to rotate in.

Chelsea Has Questions Up Top With Lukaku’s Injury

All eyes will be on who leads the line for Chelsea as Lukaku returned early from international duty after picking up a knock.

The absentees don’t stop there for the Blues, with star midfielder N’Golo Kanté and American Christian  Pulisic both out with injuries, Reece James suspended after picking up a red card in the last match and Thiago Silva also out due to a five-day ban from FIFA after playing for Brazil this week.

The good news for Thomas Tuchel? He has more than enough quality to cover for the losses this season. Through three games, Chelsea has two convincing wins over Crystal Palace and Arsenal before holding on with 10 men for a draw at Liverpool before the break.

We all know about how Tuchel made his side more compact defensively last season, and it has continued this season with two shutouts through three matches.

When you add in Chelsea ranking in the top six for xG (4.6) and xG difference (+1.3) per fbref.com, he will be very happy with the start to the Blues’ campaign.

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Aston Villa Still Trying to Find Groove Minus Grealish

Life after Jack Grealish hasn’t been too bad for the Villans, with manager Dean Smith’s squad sitting in 11th place with a win, draw and a loss in three games.

Aston Villa turned the large transfer fee for Grealish into the new attacking trio of playmaker Emiliano Buendia (Norwich City), Jamaican winger Leon Bailey and veteran Premier League goalscorer Danny Ings.

With two goals in three, Ings has already started to pay off his large transfer fee, which has been very important with Bailey and last season’s leading scorer Ollie Watkins each missing time due to injuries.

The advanced metrics would suggest Villa has outperformed their xG early in the season as they rank in the bottom five of the league at 2.8 and have a negative xG difference of -0.3 this season.

Betting Analysis & Pick

It is easy to see how Chelsea enters the match as a heavy favorite at DraftKings, with the Blues coming in at -330 on the moneyline and -1.5 (-105) on the spread.

If you combine the absentees and possible rotations with Champions League upcoming midweek, I see better value in the under 2.75 goals on the Asian Handicap at -120 odds that’s worth a bet.

We know how dominant Chelsea was defensively last season when Tuchel took over, and I see that continuing here against a side in Villa who ranks as one of the lowest in the league in xG.

The two teams also rank in the bottom half of the table in combined xG per match through three matches this season (Chelsea-2.63; Villa-1.97).

You also can’t overlook the scheduling spot for the Blues. In the six league matches before midweek Champions League games last season after Tuchel took over, Chelsea’s matches went under 2.75 goals in four of six games.

I don’t hate the under 2.5 goals at a plus price (+105) or Chelsea Win to Nil at -110, but I like the extra coverage in case there are three goals scored.

Pick: Total Under 2.75 Goals (-120)

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