Costa Rica vs Germany Odds, Predictions, Pick | World Cup Match Preview

Costa Rica vs. Germany Odds

Thursday, Dec. 1

2 p.m. ET

FS1

Germany and Costa Rica meet for the final matchday in Group E with the Germans in a must win scenario.

Costa Rica got a surprise upset over Japan in their last match after getting blown out 7-0 by Spain. The Costa Ricans are now in a position to potentially go through to the round of 16 with a win, though it is unlikely. They also can go through with a draw against the Germans and a Japan loss versus Spain.

It's win or go home time for the Germans who were upset by Japan in the first match and then got a late goal to draw with Spain. They are sitting on one point and have been very unlucky in this tournament. However, if Spain beat Japan, they will most likely be through into the round of 16.

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Costa Rica Still Getting Lucky

If you are new to the whole "Costa Rica Betting Experience" thing, the match against Japan was nothing new because that is essentially how they got to the World Cup.

They went all the way through World Cup Qualifying with a +6 goal differential, but a -4.43 xG differential. In six matches against their three toughest opponents (USA, Mexico, and Canada), Costa Rica created just 3.9 xG.

When you have to go play one of the elite teams in the world, that type of offensive output leads to nearly nothing because Costa Rica did not register a shot in their first match against Spain. 

Then against Japan, they took four shots, had two touches in the Japanese penalty area and scored on their only shot on target this tournament. That's the definition of luckbox.

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Germany Alive Despite Poor Variance

It's been a bad World Cup on paper for the Germans, but they've been caught on the wrong side of some variance. Based on xG, they were the far better side against Japan, but Japan just capitalized on their counterattacking opportunities.

Then against Spain, Germany held one of the best attacking sides in the world to just seven shots, 0.6 xG and 14 penalty box touches.

The narrative surrounding this German team has been that they are too aggressive with their pressing, which leaves a lot of open space in behind. However, a back line of Niklas Süle, Antonio Rüdiger and Nico Schlotterbeck/Thilo Kehrer is much better than the one they were rolling out at the Euros.

Germany are an incredibly possession dominant side and they held over 60% possession on average throughout World Cup Qualifying. While their defense can be exposed at times, we have a good sample size under Hansi Flick against weaker competition.

After the Euros they played seven World Cup Qualifying matches against North Macedonia, Liechtenstein, Iceland, Romania and Armenia. In those seven matches they conceded just 4.21 xG. 

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Costa Rica vs. Germany Pick

The only realistic chance that Costa Rica have at getting to the round of 16 is parking the bus and praying that they can somehow draw Germany and Spain beat Japan.

Costa Rica have had the worst offense in the entire World Cup, creating just 0.11 xG through two matches. If they were not able to even register a shot against Spain, what makes you think they will even get to 0.5 xG in this match Germany?

I like Costa Rica's under of 0.5.

The Pick: Costa Rica Under 0.5 (-159) 

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