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English Premier League 2022-23 Futures Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions & Expert Tips: Our Staff’s Best Bets for EPL Champion, Relegation, Golden Boot Winner, More

English Premier League 2022-23 Futures Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions & Expert Tips: Our Staff’s Best Bets for EPL Champion, Relegation, Golden Boot Winner, More article feature image
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Photos courtesy of Getty Images. Pictured (from top and clockwise): Harry Kane and Son Heung-min; Erling Haaland; Mohamed Salah; and, Christian Pulisic.

Premier League action returns from its deserved holiday this week, with a full slate of matches kicking off the highly anticipated 2022-23 season.

Much of the talk entering the first matchday has centered around whether or not reigning champion Manchester City can fend off the likes of Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham and others. However, there has also been plenty of chatter when it comes to other betting markets.

And that’s where the Action Network squad enters the chat.

Soccer editor Jeremy Pond, along with handicappers BJ Cunningham, Anthony Dabbundo, Brett Pund and Nick Hennion, have unveiled their top futures bets. There’s a little bit of everything in the picks, including EPL champion, top goalscorer, club to be relegated and other fun wagers loaded with value.

So, let’s take a look at our squad’s favorite picks and see where the experts have landed ahead of the long season we’re about to embark on.

Staff Picks for EPL Champion

*Odds via DraftKings | BetMGM | PointsBet | FanDuel | Caesars

ANALYST THE PICK | BEST BOOK
Jeremy Pond Spurs (+1600) | FanDuel
Anthony Dabbundo * Live Wager *
Nick Hennion Liverpool (+275) | PointsBet

Jeremy Pond: There’s no way I’m backing Manchester City at -175 or better. And Liverpool (+220) doesn’t tickle my fancy either. So, I’m taking a swing with Son Heung-min and crew at a nice, longshot price to take the English top flight.

Anthony Dabbundo: I’ll look to be buying low on Manchester City at a price closer to even money if Liverpool starts hot in attack as it did last year. I don’t see a huge gap between the clubs right now, but City’s ceiling is solidly higher with Erling Haaland leading the line. It wouldn’t be a new thing if the Cityzens dropped some early season points.

Nick Hennion: Manchester City probably wins the title, but I have no interest in laying -170 odds. Liverpool is close enough that this price is worth backing.

Staff Picks for Top 4 Finish

*Odds via DraftKings | BetMGM | PointsBet | FanDuel | Caesars

ANALYST THE PICK | BEST BOOK
Jeremy Pond Spurs (-135) | DraftKings
BJ Cunningham Chelsea (-140) | Caesars
Anthony Dabbundo Arsenal (+130) | DraftKings
Brett Pund Spurs (-135) | DraftKings
Nick Hennion Spurs (-135) | DraftKings

Jeremy Pond: As you see, there’s a sizeable Tottenham camp among our Action Network handicappers. Love the price we’re getting at DraftKings, so play it now because I don’t see being any lower prior to the club’s first match.

BJ Cunningham: I don’t hate playing Chelsea at -140 odds. Adding Kalidou Koulibaly, one of the more underrated centerbacks in the world, and having Reece James and Ben Chillwell healthy should turn the Blues back into the elite defensive side we saw two years ago when they won the Champions League. Chelsea also added Raheem Sterling for offensive depth.

So, considering Arsenal is my next closest team to crash the top four and I am projecting the club to finish 14 points behind Chelsea, there is a little bit of value on them to hit this wager.

Anthony Dabbundo: Arsenal had one major issue last season and that was a lack of shots from the striker position that limited its attack. The Gunners failed to reinforce in January and might have been top four last year if they had.

The club added Gabriel Jesus and good defensive additions with William Saliba and Oleksandr Zinchenko. The result should be a deeper side. Also, if Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martenelli move forward, the Gunners will reap the rewards of having the youngest EPL squad and return to Champions League places.

Brett Pund: A full season under manager Antonio Conte, plus strong summer signings, should keep Spurs in the Champions League places.

Nick Hennion: Last season, Tottenham accumulated the third-most points starting with the 11th week of the season. That was also Conte’s first tilt at the helm. Add in a $150 million cash injection and Spurs are worth laying a price.

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Staff Picks for Top 10 Finish

*Odds via DraftKings | BetMGM | PointsBet | FanDuel | Caesars

ANALYST THE PICK | BEST BOOK
Jeremy Pond Crystal Palace (+275) | BetMGM
BJ Cunningham Brentford (+500) | BetMGM
BJ Cunningham Crystal Palace (+275) | BetMGM
Anthony Dabbundo Crystal Palace (+275) | BetMGM
Brett Pund Fulham (+650) | BetMGM
Nick Hennion Aston Villa (-105) | BetMGM

Jeremy Pond: The Eagles, who finished just three points out of ninth place last season, are ripe for a Top 10 run under manager Patrick Vieira. Note: I love some of the prices our squad has uncovered with their picks as well.

BJ Cunningham: Last season, Brentford finished with 56 expected points and 46 actual points, the third biggest discrepancy behind only Crystal Palace and Watford. That 56 expected points was the seventh best mark in the Premier League, better than Manchester United, West Ham United and Leicester City.

So, given the fact the Bees have kept their main core together and are due to positively regress based on xGDiff and xPoints, a price of +500 is simply too good to pass up for them obtain a top-half finish.

As for Crystal Palace, no team underperformed based on xP more than the club outside Watford. The Eagles finished the season in 12th place with 48 points, but they had a +5.4 xGDiff and 58.16 xP, which was sixth best in the English top flight. Outside of losing Conor Gallagher, the Eagles kept everyone.

I have Palace projected as the seventh-best team coming into the season, so I love the price on them at +275 for a top-half finish.

Anthony Dabbundo: Crystal Palace did lose Conor Gallagher back to Chelsea, but made improvements in the transfer window by adding Chris Richards and Cheick Doucoure to solidify what was an elite defense and solid midfield last season by every metric.

The side is a positive regression candidate which ran really poorly in one-goal games last season despite the sixth-most xP overall. Crystal Palace has a surprising amount of attacking depth to withstand an injury or two this season.

Brett Pund: Typically, one promoted side pushes for Top 10 every season and I’ll take the team with a proven manager and goalscorer.

Nick Hennion: Under manager Steven Gerrard, Aston Villa produced a +7.1 xGDiff against non-Champions League sides, while posting above-average offensive and defensive xG/90 metrics. Quality transfer additions — Philippe Coutinho, Boubacar Kamara and Diego Carlos — make it a top-half side.

Staff Picks for Winner Without The Big Six

*Odds via DraftKings | BetMGM | PointsBet | FanDuel | Caesars

ANALYST THE PICK | BEST BOOK
Jeremy Pond West Ham (+400) | PointsBet
Anthony Dabbundo Aston Villa (+600) | DraftKings
Brett Pund Aston Villa (+600) | DraftKings
Nick Hennion Brighton (+700) | PointsBet

Jeremy Pond: We are getting massive value on the Hammers, who finished in this position last season and four points clear of Leicester City in the table. If you’re looking for an alternative, try Brighton & Hove Albion over at PointsBet.

Anthony Dabbundo: Aston Villa improved immediately in defense once Steven Gerrard took over as manager. A full season of Philippe Coutinho at the club should help it take steps forward in attack. Negative variance cost the Villans much better results once Gerrard assumed the reins in the second half. Emi Martinez is unlikely to be one of the worst goalkeepers in the league again.

I think Aston Villa will be in the hunt with West Ham United, Brighton, Newcastle and Crystal Palace for seventh, but as of now, I think it’s the best or second best of those teams.

Brett Pund: I’m backing the Villans to continue to improve under Gerrard, especially with the new additions to the squad.

Nick Hennion: To me, this price is a steal. Brighton has posted a top-half home xGDiff two seasons running and did very well after seeing a team once last season. The Seagulls avoided defeat in 14 of 19 fixtures and won the xG battle in 10 of those 19 matches.

Staff Picks for PFA Player of the Year

*Odds via DraftKings | BetMGM | PointsBet | FanDuel | Caesars

ANALYST THE PICK | BEST BOOK
Jeremy Pond Mohamed Salah (+800) | PointsBet
Nick Hennion Harry Kane (+1200) | PointsBet

Jeremy Pond: New contract? Tough finish behind Manchester City in last season’s title race? I don’t know what other motivation the Egyptian star needs to make sure everyone knows he’s the league’s best player.

Nick Hennion: If all goes well for Tottenham, the club has the capability to win the league. Based on that belief, I’ll back Kane, who will likely be leading the way for Spurs if that were to happen.

Staff Picks for Team to be Relegated

*Odds via DraftKings | BetMGM | PointsBet | FanDuel | Caesars

ANALYST THE PICK | BEST BOOK
Jeremy Pond Leeds (+230) | FanDuel
BJ Cunningham Southampton (+300) | BetMGM
BJ Cunningham Wolves (+500) | BetMGM
Anthony Dabbundo Nottingham Forest (+100) | BetMGM
Brett Pund Nottingham Forest (+100) | BetMGM
Nick Hennion Leeds (+230) | FanDuel

Jeremy Pond: This is a case of putting head over heart since I’m a huge Leeds supporter. I simply don’t know where the Peacocks are going to find goals, especially with Raphinha leaving Elland Road for greener Barcelona pastures and Kalvin Phillips bouncing to Manchester City ahead of the season.

BJ Cunningham: From Jan.  1 and beyond, only Norwich City, Watford and Wolverhampton had worst xGDiff and xPoints than Southampton. The Saints in 19 matches had a -10.34 xGDiff and 20.27 xPoints, per understat.com.

That said, I have Southampton projected for the fourth fewest points (40.30), so you’re getting 5% of value on its relegation odds.

One of the biggest over-performers in league history since it started tracking xG during the 2014-15 season, Wolverhampton finished last season in 10th place with 51 points, plus a -5 actual goal differential.

However, Wolves had a -24.4 xGDiff and 40.54 xPoints, so they should have finished in 17th place, right above the relegation zone. So, I love Wolverhampton at +500 to to be relegated.

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Anthony Dabbundo: I love that Nottingham Forest is making a real effort to remain in the league by splashing a lot of cash on a bunch of new signings.

That being said, I don’t think it will be enough for a team that was fifth and seventh in the Championship last season in xG and xGA, respectively. Even if you bump up its projected xGDiff due of the new additions, it’s hard to get them out of the relegation zone.

More likely than not, Forest’s stay in the EPL will be short-lived.

Brett Pund: It’s hard to stay in the EPL with a team built on loans in the Championship, plus the playoff winner normally gets relegated.

Nick Hennion: I so want to root for Jesse Marsch, but this side looked awful last season without Kalvin Phillips, who’s now at Manchester City. The departure of Raphinha doesn’t help much either and leaves Leeds with few reliable goal scorers.

Staff Picks for Golden Boot Winner

*Odds via DraftKings | BetMGM | PointsBet | FanDuel | Caesars

ANALYST THE PICK | BEST BOOK
Jeremy Pond Harry Kane (+650) | FanDuel
BJ Cunningham Diogo Jota (+2500) | DraftKings
Anthony Dabbundo Diogo Jota (+2500) | DraftKings
Brett Pund Mohamed Salah (+500) | DraftKings
Nick Hennion Mohamed Salah (+500) | DraftKings

Jeremy Pond: I love Kane to win this award. The combination of him getting a plethora of chances during a 38-match campaign and the likely Son regression on the goal-scoring side gives me confidence in this betting angle.

BJ Cunningham: Jota finished last season third in xG (17.90) and 0.65 xG per 90 minutes. Last season, he wound up with 3.27 shots per 90 minutes, which only Kane, Salah and Cristiano Ronaldo topped that mark.

Jota also sixth in NPxG per shot(0.18), which was ahead of that trio. The departure of Sadio Mané also gives Jota more opportunities to play, as I would assume that manager Jürgen Klopp would prefer him on the pitch over Darwin Núñez or Luis Díaz.

Anthony Dabbundo: The departure of Sadio Mané and potential departure of Roberto Firmino leaves a clear opening for Diogo Jota to play nearly all of the minutes for the Reds.

I normally don’t love betting someone who isn’t on penalties, but he was elite in his per 90-minutes rate based last season’s statistics and generated a ton of big scoring chances. If Darwin Nunez takes some time to settle in, the attack will funnel through Jota in the middle.

Brett Pund: There are plenty of goals left on the table after Sadio Mané’s departure, and Salah won’t be distracted by the World Cup.

Nick Hennion: Yes, it’s (somewhat) square, but Salah gets a month of rest since Egypt didn’t qualify for the World Cup. Although the same can be said for consensus favorite Haaland, give me the more experienced EPL player.

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