Everton vs Newcastle Odds, Pick | Premier League Preview

Everton vs Newcastle Odds, Pick | Premier League Preview article feature image

Alex Livesey/Getty. Pictured: Alexander Isak and Eddie Howe.

Everton vs Newcastle Odds

Thurs, Apr. 27
2:45 p.m. ET

Everton Odds


Newcastle Odds

Over/Under2.5 (+100 / -120)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)(-104 / -125)
Odds via BetRivers. Get the latest soccer odds here.

Everton look to get out of the relegation zone on Thursday when they host third-place Newcastle.

The Toffees have fallen on hard times as Sean Dyche continues to try and bring them out of the relegation zone. Everton are now winless in their last five matches and the underlying results have not been promising either. After dropping points in must win games against Fulham and Crystal Palace, they need to get a result against Newcastle.

Eddie Howe's Newcastle are flying high after a 6-1 rout at home against Tottenham that saw them up 5-0 in side the first half hour of the match. Newcastle are fighting for a place in the top four and are furthering the distance between them and the pack each and every week. This is another fantastic opportunity to pick up three points against a struggling side.

Everton Struggling on Offensive End

The problem for Everton has been their inability to create any type of high quality chances. The Toffees have been poor in build up play this season, which is not good news against Newcastle’s “trapping” high press. Everton will have to play almost all of their goal kicks long and be extremely direct, which is always a gamble – particularly when going up against a defense that has conceded the third-fewest big scoring chances in the Premier League and is second in aerial duels won.

In the previous meeting between these two, Everton managed just one shot and it’s not like they were defending a lead or playing from an even game state. Their shot came in the 26th minute and Miguel Almiron scored five minutes later.

Amadou Onana is questionable for this match as well, which hampers Everton’s ability to close off the middle of the pitch and defend in transition. If Dyche has to go with a midfield of Idrissa Gueye and Abdoulaye Doucoure, then Everton will have big problems.

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Newcastle a True Top Four Side

Newcastle have been outrageously good offensively lately. Since the 2-0 loss to Manchester City, they’ve scored 19 goals and created 17 xG in those matches. Alexander Isak has transformed this Newcastle attack because he is a striker that doesn’t have a weakness and can receive the ball and finish from almost any angle. It has given Newcastle versatility in their attack and also has created space for all of their other attackers. Isak has now scored seven goals in his last seven matches and will be a pain for Everton to deal with.

One of the reasons why Newcastle have been so good against teams in the bottom half of the table is because of their style of play, which is different than most teams at the top of the table. Teams like Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool all are outstanding build up possession type teams that counter-press at an elite level. Newcastle are an elite counter-pressing team as well, but they're much better playing in transition.

Newcastle are converting 38.3% of their final third entries into box entries, which is the best mark in the Premier League. When they play teams like Everton, who are much better when the match becomes transitional, they are able to dominate because they have the best transition offense in the Premier League.

Everton vs Newcastle Pick

I really don't know how Everton are going to be competitive in this match. They can't play out of the back because of their poor build up play against one of the best high pressing teams in the Premier League and they also can't make the match become super-transitional because Newcastle have the best transition offense in the Premier League.

Plus, you add onto the fact that Everton are in the drop zone and have to be aggressive to get out. If they decide to press Newcastle high to disrupt their build up play that's going to leave a lot of space in behind for Newcastle to operate in transition.

I have Newcastle projected at -147 and I like the value on the Magpies at -129.

Pick: Newcastle ML (-129)

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