Monday Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions: Everton vs. Burnley Betting Preview

Monday Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions: Everton vs. Burnley Betting Preview article feature image
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Marc Atkins/Getty Images. Pictured: Everton standout Richarlison.

Everton vs. Burnley Odds

Everton Odds -145
Burnley Odds +425
Draw +270
Over/Under 2.5 (+110 / -150)
Day | Time Monday | 3 p.m. ET
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Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here

Clubs going in different directions square off at Goodison Park on Monday when Everton hosts struggling Burnley in Premier League action.

The Toffees have gotten off to a solid start, going unbeaten through their first three fixtures in the English top flight. They strutted into the international break with their heads held high following a 2-0 road victory against upstart Brighton & Hove Albion.

A win on Merseyside would vault Everton into third on the table, but put it even on points with frontrunner Manchester United and second-place Chelsea.

In contrast, life continues to be less than spectacular for Burnley. The Clarets have yet to win a match, with the offense continuing to struggle much like it did last season. Burnley, which is winless in its last six league games, did muster its first point of the season last time out in a 1-1 tie with Leeds United, so it will be looking to build off that performance.

Let’s take a look at these sides and see what might be in the cards.

Impressive Start Has Everton Feeling Optimistic

Manager Rafa Benítez probably couldn’t be a whole lot happier after his club’s strong start, sans a 2-2 draw against Leeds United in its second match. The Toffees finished with a 2.1-1.5 advantage on expected goals in that stalemate but had to settle for a point at Elland Road.

Other than that, it’s been pure bliss for Everton. A season-opening 3-1 win over Southampton got the campaign off to great start, plus the shutout against a dangerous Brighton squad sitting in the top four after its weekend win against Brentford is cause for plenty of optimism.

When it comes to the advanced metrics, the Toffees have been solid on the numbers. They’ve averaged more than 2.0 xG per match (6.1 xG in total) and conceded just 3.2 xGA, good enough for a 2.9 xG differential and 0.97 xGDiff/90 minutes. That xGDiff/90 puts them third overall in league play.

However, there are questions surrounding the health of standout Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who missed out with England during the international break after picking up a quadriceps injury. The Everton talisman has reportedly been part of training leading up to this fixture, but Benítez hasn’t offered much insight as to his availability for the evening tussle.

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New Season, Same Difficult Times for Burnley

Another run in the English top flight means another edition of Burnley flirting with the relegation zone at Turf Moor. Well, at least that seems to be the Clarets’ direction after a winless start to their campaign.

If I’m being honest, not a whole lot has changed from a season ago. Burnley continues to struggle on the offensive side, which has been apparent by the fact the club has scored just two goals through three matches. The Clarets’ 3.3 xG are the second worst overall, putting them just ahead of Watford (2.8 xG) in the 20-team first division.

Now, the visitors face an in-form Everton side making legitimate moves early on in the chase for a top-six finish and spot in next season’s European football. Chris Wood and James Tarkowski have the lone goals for the Clarets, who should come out in their traditional 4-4-2 formation in this meeting.

Unfortunately, that tactical approach hasn’t been remotely effectively unless you consider a draw with 17th-place Leeds a success. In its second match, Liverpool dominated Burnley in a 2-0 triumph at Anfield. The metrics were just as bad as the score, with the Reds finishing with a 2.9-0.7 xG advantage.

Betting Analysis & Pick

If you read between the lines, I think I’ve made it pretty clear which route I’m going in this showdown between outfits heading down opposite paths.

Yes, I’m backing Everton on the moneyline at -145 odds, but have actually found something much better in terms of value for my top pick. Our friends at BetMGM offer a wager called “1×2 and Over/Under” that’s essentially a parlay where you pick a side (or draw) and either the over or under on various totals being offered.

That said, I’m taking Team 1 (Everton) and the total under combined 3.5 goals at +120 odds as my featured selection. I firmly believe the Toffees are going to bag all three points, so when you add in the fact there have been two goals or less in the Clarets’ last three league road games, I feel good about this angle.

As has become tradition in these previews, let’s take a swing at another player prop for those who enjoy these feast-or-famine wagers. With Calvert-Lewin’s availability in question, I think you have to look at Richarlison to score anytime in this affair. He’s currently sitting at +200 odds, so the Brazilian international is well worth the play as the Toffees’ most likely goal scorer.

Pick: Everton To Win & Total Under 3.5 Goals (+120)

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