Everton vs Crystal Palace Odds, Predictions, Picks | Premier League Match Preview
Tony McArdle/Getty. Pictured: Crystal Palace and Everton players.
Everton vs Crystal Palace Odds
| Everton Odds | -143 |
| Crystal Palace Odds | +425 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +107 / -138 |
For the second consecutive week, Crystal Palace are featured on Monday Night Football in the English Premier League. The Eagles grabbed an early 1-0 lead at home against Chelsea last week before ultimately falling in the second half, 3-1. Pressure is mounting around the job security of manager Roy Hodgson as the Eagles enter this match just five points above Everton and the relegation zone, and the gap could fall to four if Palace lose this match.
The biggest issue right now for Crystal Palace is the injury crisis. The attack has been extremely reliant on the production of two players — Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise — this season and both have been ruled out for this match (and Olise for the foreseeable future). The Eagles are also down one of their center backs who have been extremely reliable and barely missed time in the last two seasons.
Given the injury situation, the market has heavily downgraded the Eagles ahead of their road trip to Goodison Park and Everton on Monday.
Check out my Everton vs Crystal Palace prediction.
Everton
Everton's performances have taken a solid dip since their four match winning streak that culminated in a routine 2-0 victory at Burnley on Dec. 16. At that point, the Toffees had legitimate top six level metrics and were trending clearly upward. The relegation picture was in their rear view. Since then, the Toffees don't have a win in the league in seven matches. The schedule has been really difficult — they played Spurs twice, Manchester City twice and Aston Villa in their last seven league games.
The two games against more comparable opposition was a goalless draw at Fulham and a 3-0 defeat to Wolves. The Toffees have not had a spot like this — against a clearly inferior foe — since the win against Burnley.
In all competitions, Everton's only win was the 1-0 home triumph against Palace in the FA Cup with a goal scored on an Andre Gomes free kick. The key returner for the Toffees for this match is that Abdoulaye Doucouré is fit and likely to start. He's a key element of the pressing, he gets a good number of high quality shots and his play in and around the penalty area is a key connective piece for the Everton attack.
He's averaged 0.44 xG + xA per 90 and is actually Everton's leading scorer with six goals. His return will enable the Toffees to have their entire first choice midfield and defense available for this match. His return with Amadou Onana and James Garner in midfield gives them considerably more pressing and ball winning ability than recent midfields they have sent out.
Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace have scored nine total goals in their last eight matches across all competitions. Olise and Eze have accounted for seven of those goals. When both started against Brentford and Sheffield United, the Eagles scored three in both games — the dynamic duo accounted for all six goals. Olise scored from a cross against Chelsea as well and otherwise, it's been quite difficult for the Eagles to create chances and score goals.
Jefferson Lerma belted a goal from 30 yards against Chelsea and Jean-Phillipe Mateta scored a consolation against Brighton, but Palace have totaled 2.3 total xG in the last four matches against Brighton, Sheffield, Chelsea and Arsenal. The last two have accumulated 0.9 in total.
The two only played 21 combined 90s for Palace this year and added 11 goals and four assists combined. The drop off from these two to Jordan Ayew and Jeffrey Schlupp is quite massive for the Palace attacking outlook. The Eagles are expected to start Mateta up top again. He is averaging just 0.16 xG per 90 without penalties this season.
Two of the goals conceded came late on against Chelsea, but the defense has also been just average in the minutes without Guehi in the last two matches. Everton have struggled tactically in this matchup in the recent meetings because they prefer to play on the break and Palace are so passive out of possession.
Everton vs Crystal Palace
Prediction
These two sides have met twice since the new year due to an FA Cup matchup and replay. The total closed 2.5 with a standard -110 juice to the under for the first meeting that Eze played at Palace. It ended 0-0 with very few high quality chances at either end of the pitch.
The rematch at Goodison Park saw the Toffees close -110 on the moneyline with under 2.5 juiced -130 to the under. Eze started that match and played 70 minutes as well. Now for the third meeting, Everton have been bet all the way up to -140 on the three-way moneyline. The under has all taken money as a result of Eze's absence.
The Eagles have very few avenues on paper where they can exploit Everton's defense and the team total under is the best way to approach betting this match. If you can find +120 or better, I'd bet Palace to be blanked. I'd also take Everton to win this match, but only if you can find -135 or better on the moneyline.
Picks: Everton ML (-135 or better), Crystal Palace Under 0.5 (+125 via DraftKings)
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