Freiburg vs. Borussia Monchengladbach Odds and Predictions: The Best Betting Pick for Friday’s Bundesliga Match (June 5)

Borussia Monchengladbach at Freiburg Odds

Looking to bet on Bundesliga? Check out PointsBet, where you can get a $200 sign-up bonus AND your bets automatically sync to the Action app.Learn more about BetSync here.

The stakes are pretty high for Friday's showdown between Borussia Monchengladbach and Freiburg.

Borussia Monchengladbach comes into the weekend tied with Bayer Leverkusen for fourth place (the final Champions League spot) but Gladbach is ahead on goal differential.

Freiburg needs a win to close the gap on seventh-place Hoffenheim, who are four points ahead of Breisgau-Brasilianer for the final Europa League spot.

Freiburg

In my opinion, Freiburg is the most overrated team in the Bundesliga. Breisgau-Brasilianer's -3 goal differential makes them out to be a mediocre team but their -17.13 expected goal differential tells us they really deserve to be lower in the table.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Freiburg seems destined to regress and they are trending that way as they've only earned six points, out of a possible 24, in their last eight matches.

Freiburg has switched to a 4-4-2 formation –the most beloved and controversial formation in all of football — in their last three matches. The biggest benefit of the 4-4-2 is it is simple and provides clear roles for the players.

When the opponent has possession, you can sit eight men behind the ball and cover the entire field. However, the 4-4-2 can only be successful when the two strikers understand one another and can play as a cohesive unit. Unfortunately that doesn't seem to be the case for Freiburg, who have a -5.94 xG differential and are only generating 0.90 xG per 90 in the 557 minutes when they are in the 4-4-2.

Borussia Monchengladbach

Borussia Monchengladbach found their for in a 4-1 thrashing of Union Berlin last time out. Die Fohlen's scoring duo of Alessane Plea and Marcus Thuram combined for two goals and two assists in that match and they have developed into one of the best attacking duos in the Bundesliga.

Gladbach have been in really good form on the road their last five matches, earning 11 of a possible 15 points with a +3.87 expected goal differential in that span.

Die Fohlen's 4-2-3-1 formation (+11.35 xG) provides a lot of flexibility and allows them to use their speed to make runs in the channels to get behind the defense. Therefore, I don't think they will have a problem getting behind a shaky Freiburg defense which concedes 1.86 xG per 90 minutes out of the 4-4-2 formation.

Previous Meeting

Gladbach won the reverse fixture in December, 4-2, at Borussia Park. Die Fohlen dominated the match outshooting Freiburg, 23-12, with 17 of their shots coming inside the 18-yard box. Additionally, the expected goals report backed up Die Fohlen's domination and indicates the scoreline could have been bigger.

Analysis

I think that Borussia Monchengladbach's attacking prowess will be too much for Freiburg, who will likely sit back and try to hit Gladbach on the counter.

My model has the expected goals at:

• Freiburg:  1.29 xG
• Gladbach: 2.55 xG

Based on those numbers, I make Borussia Monchengladbach a -171 favorite so I see plenty of value backing Die Fohlen to take all three points at the Schwarzwald-Stadion.