Fulham vs Liverpool Odds, Pick, Prediction | Carabao Cup Semifinal Preview

Wednesday, Jan. 24

3 p.m. ET

ESPN+

Fulham Odds	+300
Liverpool Odds	-125
Draw	+300
Over / Under	2.5  -163 / +130

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Chelsea booked the first spot in the EFL Cup final with a 6-1 demolition of Middlesbrough at Stamford Bridge on Tuesday, and Liverpool is a heavy favorite to join them as the Reds visit Fulham on Wednesday. The Cottagers grabbed an early first-half lead at Liverpool in the first leg on Jan. 10 before the Reds scored twice in quick succession to win the home leg 2-1.

Fulham enters this match with a lot more rest because the Cottagers didn't play over the weekend in the Premier League. They've had 10 days since their 1-0 away defeat to Chelsea, while Liverpool is on a short turnaround from Sunday's 4-0 win against Bournemouth.

Both Diogo Jota and Darwin Núñez scored twice for the Reds in that game, and Jürgen Klopp needs to carefully manage the minutes of his top guys while Mohamed Salah and Trent Alexander-Arnold remain out through injury.

The Reds are priced by oddsmakers at -1000 to advance, but Fulham will feel they have a decent chance to pull off the upset and maybe get this to penalties with a home win.

Find myFulham vs Liverpool prediction and Carabao Cup Semifinal preview below.

Between the league and the cup matches, Fulham is in the midst of one of the most difficult stretches of its schedule this season. They have a home win against Arsenal in the league, an away defeat to Chelsea and two matchups with Liverpool in the cup all since Dec. 31. The Cottagers will also host Newcastle in the FA Cup this weekend.

Fulham's most impressive performance of the three came at home against Arsenal. The Cottagers had more penalty area touches than Arsenal in the match, and that's despite holding a lead for the final 30 minutes plus stoppage time.

There's some real ball-winning in this Fulham midfield, and they shouldn't be expected to be run over by Liverpool in the center of the park. They've played two matches at Anfield and conceded 2.1 xGA and 1.4 xGA. It was especially impressive how much Fulham's midfield and full-backs shut down box entries in the 4-3 thriller at Anfield that they ultimately lost.

Liverpool scored three goals from outside the penalty area in the match, but the Fulham defense has been trending up for the last 10 matches. They rank 10th in Field Tilt, ninth in Box Entries Allowed and 11th in Expected Threat Conceded.

The attack still has way too many attacks break down outside the penalty area because of a lack of attacking quality, and they're still without key midfielder Alex Iwobi, who provides a lot of attacking production with late runs into the penalty area.

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The final scoreline looks great for Liverpool on Sunday, but the Reds were far from their best for the first 50 minutes of the match. The Reds attack is playing without their three best passers — Alexander-Arnold, Salah and Dominik Szoboszlai — and the result is a less lethal transition attack and a general decline in their attacking output.

Liverpool finished the match at Bournemouth with 1.5 Expected Goals and 14 total shots. Prior to Darwin Núñez breaking through in the 49th minute, Liverpool had four total shots for 0.13 xG in total.

There was not a shot attempted from inside the penalty area until Núñez's goal. Bournemouth was one of the most improved attacking sides in the league in the last 10 matches entering the Liverpool match and had just posted 1.7 xG in the loss to Spurs in their prior Premier League match. They created next to nothing until stoppage time when Liverpool already led 3-0.

The absence of Alexander-Arnold due to injury leaves the Reds playing three center-backs, including the much more reserved Joe Gomez at right-back. Gomez doesn't get forward nearly as much as Alexander-Arnold.

Alexander-Arnold's frequent shifts into midfield and overlaps up the right often put more pressure on Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konaté to cover space on the break. Liverpool is much sturdier defensively on the wings when Gomez is in the lineup.

Van Dijk made an error in the first leg to give Fulham its lone goal, but the Reds' top center-back pairing has played otherwise flawless soccer in the last month.

There are two consistently reliable and productive attackers in the Liverpool team right now: Núñez and Jota. Given that both played a full 90 on Sunday, you could see Klopp choose to rotate and limit minutes in this key second leg.

I'd still expect Liverpool to play its first-choice defense on Wednesday as Klopp will rotate for the weekend against Norwich City in the FA Cup. Fulham's defense is underrated by the market right now, and the Reds starting with a one-goal aggregate lead could make them marginally  more conservative than normal.

I'd bet under 3 at -125 or better.

Pick: Under 3 (-120 | Bet to -125)